Significant differences in residential energy consumption under different pricing models: New evidence from a district heating and cooling project in subtropical China

Abstract

This study analyzes residential energy consumption patterns in subtropical China’s hot-summer/cold-winter regions through a case study of 2986 users in Changzhou, Jiangsu, focusing on district heating/cooling (DHC) pricing models. Results show consumption-based fee (CBF) users (70% of the sample) consumed six times less annual energy than capacity-based area pricing (CBA) adopters (30%), driven primarily by usage frequency. System-wide energy demand and capacity requirements under both models were 42% below projections, yet CBA users showed 3.27 times higher winter heating consumption than predicted, revealing behavioral deviations from theoretical loads. Optimizing heat pump-to-chiller ratios based on cooling/heating asymmetry improved equipment utilization by 18%–25%, while a hybrid CBF-CBA framework with phased infrastructure deployment (60%–70% of initial estimates) reduced capital expenditures by 22%–35%. Dynamic pricing and modular design enhanced grid stability and mitigated financial risks, challenging conventional fixed-rate DHC models in subtropical cities. These findings provide actionable strategies for aligning system design with user behavior, balancing thermal comfort demands with decarbonization goals in rapidly urbanizing regions.

Practical application

This study equips building professionals with data-driven strategies to optimize subtropical DHC systems. By adopting consumption-based pricing, which reduced energy use sixfold versus area-based models, engineers can align billing structures with user behavior to cut peak loads. Infrastructure planners should scale initial capacity to 60%–70% of projections (22%–35% cost savings) and prioritize heat pump-chiller ratio optimization (18%–25% efficiency gain) for climate-specific demand asymmetry. Developers benefit from modular, phased deployment accommodating urban growth while mitigating financial risks. These approaches enable cities to balance decarbonization goals with rising thermal comfort needs, offering a replicable blueprint for sustainable DHC in fast-growing subtropical regions.