The creation of wind speed and direction data for the use in probabilistic future weather files

Abstract

Pseudo weather data with a high temporal resolution are of use in many fields including the modelling of agricultural systems, the placement of wind turbines and building thermal simulations. With the publication of the 2009 UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) such data can be created for future years and for various predictions of climate change. Unfortunately such — UKCP09 — data does not include information about wind speed or direction due to a lack of robustness. Here we demonstrate a methodology for generating such wind data on an hourly time grid from a consideration of the potential evapotranspiration reported by the UKCP09 weather generator and information related to the correlation between observed wind speed, direction and time of year. We find our pseudo wind data is consistent with the historic observed wind. Furthermore, when used within a dynamic thermal simulation of a building, the use of such pseudo wind data generates a consistent internal environment in terms of ventilation rates, temperatures and energy use that is indistinguishable from simulations completed using historic observed weather for both single-sided and cross-ventilated buildings.

Practical applications: The methodology presented in this paper will allow academics and building engineers to create realistic hourly wind speed and direction data for inclusion with the future climate data of UKCP09. This will allow the creation of consistent future weather years for use in areas such as building thermal simulation.