Phase division and transition modeling based on the dominant phase identification for multiphase batch process quality prediction

Abstract

Batch processes are carried out from one steady phase to another one, which may have multiphase and transitions. Modeling in transitions besides in the steady phases should also be taken into consideration for quality prediction. In this paper, a quality prediction strategy is proposed for multiphase batch processes. First, a new repeatability factor is introduced to divide batch process into different steady phases and transitions. Then, the different local cumulative models that considered the cumulative effect of process variables on quality are established for steady phases and transitions. Compared with the reported modeling methods in transitions, a novel just-in-time model can be established based on the dominant phase identification. The proposed method can not only consider the dynamic characteristic in the transition but also improve the accuracy and the efficiency of transitional models. Finally, online quality prediction is performed by accumulating the prediction results from different phases and transitions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by penicillin fermentation process.