Though the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) does not directly address the issue of migration and trade, the effects of NAFTA on Mexican migration to the United States will be closely watched. This article provides background information on NAFTA, reviews data on its economic effects, and summarizes studies and projections of NAFTA's likely effects on Mexico-to-U.S. migration. Migration factors (demand-pull, supply-push, and networks) are examined to determine whether NAFTA's effect on economic development particularly in the border areas will accelerate or retard migration. The conclusion is that NAFTA is likely to produce a temporary migration hump, slightly raising already high migration levels in the 1990s, but reducing the volume of Mexico-to-U.S. migration that would otherwise occur over subsequent decades.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AbowdJohn M.FreemanRichard B., eds. 1991Immigration, Trade and the Labor Market. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research.
2.
AcevedoDoloresEspenshadeThomas1992“Implications of a NAFTA for Mexican Migration into the United States,”Population and Development Review, 18(4):729–744.
3.
AlbaFrancisco1992“Migrant Labor Supply and Demand in Mexico and the United States: A Global Perspective.” In U.S. Mexican Relations: Labor Market Interdependence. Edited by BustamanteJorgeReynoldsClarkHinojosa-OjedaRaul. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
4.
AppleyardReginald1989“Migration and Development: Myths and Reality,”International Migration Review, 23(3):486–499.
5.
BeanFrankEdmonstonBarryPasselJeffrey, eds. 1990Undocumented Migration to the United States: IRCA and the Experience of the 1980s. Washington: The Urban Institute Press.
6.
BöhningW.R.1984Studies in International Labor Migration. London: Macmillan.
7.
BöhningW.R.Schloeter-ParedesM., eds. 1993Economic Haven or Political Refugees: Can Aid Reduce the Need for Migration? Proceedings of an ILO-UNHCR Conference, Geneva, May 1992. Geneva: International Labour Organisation.
8.
BrannonJeffrey T.LuckerG. William1988“The Impact of Mexico's Economic Crisis on the Demographic Composition of the Maquiladora Labor Force.” Report prepared for the US Department of Labor, and article in the Journal of Borderlands Studies, 4(1):39–70.
CalvaJose Luis1992Probables Efectos de un Tratado de Libre Comercio en el Campo Mexico. Mexico City: Fontamara.
11.
Commission for the Study of International Migration and Cooperative Economic Development1990Unauthorized Migration: An Economic Development Response. Washington, DC: The Commission.
12.
CookRoberta1991NAFTA: Effects on Agriculture Vol. 4 Fruit and Vegetable Issues. Park Ride, IL: American Farm Bureau Foundation.
13.
CorneliusWayne1992a“From Sojourners to Settlers: The Changing Profile of Mexican Immigration to the United States.” In U.S. Mexican Relations: Labor Market Interdependence. Edited by BustamanteJorgeReynoldsClarkHinojosa-OjedaRaul. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
14.
CorneliusWayne1992b“The Politics and Economics of Reforming the Ejido Sector in Mexico: An Overview and Research Agenda,”LASA Forum, 23(3):3–10.
15.
CorneliusWayne1991“Impacts of NAFTA on Mexican Labor Migration.” Manuscript (May 4). 1990 Labor Migration to the U.S.: Development Outcomes and Alternatives in Mexican Sending Communities. San Diego: Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California.
16.
CrossHarrySandosJames1981Across the Border: Rural Development in Mexican and Recent Migration to the United States. Berkeley: Institute of Governmental Studies, University of California.
17.
DavilaAlbertoSaenzRogelio1990“The Effect of Maquiladora Employment on the Monthly Flow of Mexican Undocumented Immigration to the U.S., 1978–1982,”International Migration Review, 24(1):96–107.
18.
EspenshadeThomas1991“Responsiveness of the Mexico-U.S. Flow of Undocumented Migrants to Relative Improvements in the Mexican Economy.” Manuscript.
19.
FixMichael1991The Paper Curtain: Employer Sanctions' Implementation, Impact, and Reform. Washington: Urban Institute Press.
20.
Garcia y Griego, Manuel1989“The Mexican Labor Supply, 1990–2010.” In Mexican Migration to the United States: Origins, Consequences and Policy Options. Edited by CorneliusWayneBustamanteJorge A., La Jolla: Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California — San Diego.
21.
GraysonGeorge1993The North American Free Trade Agreement. New York: Foreign Policy Association.
22.
Hinojosa-OjedaRaulMcCleeryRobert1992“U.S.-Mexico Interdependence, Social Pacts and Policy Perspectives: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach.” In U.S. Mexican Relations: Labor Market Interdependence. Edited by BustamanteJorgeReynoldsClarkHinojosa-OjedaRaul. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
23.
Hinojosa-OjedaRaulRobinsonSherman1991“Alternative Scenarios of U.S. Mexico Integration: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach.” Working Paper No. 609. Berkeley, CA: Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California.
24.
HollifieldJames1992Immigrants, Markets, and States: The Political Economy of Immigration in Postwar Europe and the U.S. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
25.
HuertaMario M. Carillo1990The Impact of Maquiladoras on Migration in Mexico Working Paper 51 (July). Washington: U.S. Commission for the Study of International Migration and Cooperative Economic Development.
26.
HufbauerGarySchottJeffrey1993NAFTA: An Assessment. Washington: Institute for International Economics.
27.
HufbauerGarySchottJeffrey1992North American Free Trade: Issues and Recommendations. Washington: Institute for International Economics.
28.
LeeEverett1966“A Theory of Migration,”Demography, 3(1):47–57.
29.
LevySantiago1991“Notes on a NAFTA.” Mimeo.
30.
LevySantiagovan WijnbergenSweder1992“Mexico and the Free Trade Agreement between Mexico and the United States,”The World Bank Economic Review, 4(3):481–502.
31.
LustingNora1992Mexico: The Remaking of an Economy. Washington: Brookings Institution.
32.
MartinPhilip1992“International Migration: A New Challenge,”International Economic Insights, 3(2):2–6.
33.
MartinPhilip1991The Unfinished Story: Turkish Labor Migration to Western Europe. Geneva: International Labour Organisation.
34.
MasseyD.DurandJ.1992“Mexican Migration to the United States,”Latin American Research Review, Spring:3–42.
35.
MasseyDouglas1987Return to Aztlan: The Social Process of International Migration from Western Mexico. Berkeley: University of California Press.
36.
MinesRichard1982The Evolution of Mexican Migration to the U.S.: A Case Study. Berkeley: Giannini Foundation.
37.
MinesRichardGabbardSusanBoccalandroBeatriz1991Findings from the NAWS 1990 Research Report No. 1. Washington: U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Assistant Secretary for Policy.
President's Commission on Migratory Labor1951Migratory Labor in American Agriculture. Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office.
40.
RobinsonSherman1991Agricultural Policies and Migration in a U.S.-Mexico Free Trade Area: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Working Paper No. 617. Berkeley: Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California.
41.
RothmanErikEspenshadeThomas1992“Fiscal Impacts of Immigration to the United States,”Population Index, 58(3):381–415.
42.
SchoepfleGregoryPerez-LopezJorge1989“Export Assembly Operations in Mexico and the Caribbean,”Journal of Inter-American Studies, 31(4).
43.
SeligsonMitchellWilliamsEdward1981Maquiladoras and Migration: A Study of Workers in the Mexican-United States Border Industrialization Program. Austin: University of Texas.
44.
SimcoxDavid1991“Immigration and Free Trade with Mexico: Protecting American Workers Against Double Jeopardy.”Backgrounder 4–91. Washington: Center for Immigration Studies.
45.
SklairLeslie1989Assembling for Development: The Maquila Industry in Mexico and the United States. Boston and London: Unwin Hyman.
46.
StahlCharles W.1982“Labor Emigration and Economic Development,”International Migration Review, 16(4):869–899.
47.
StoddardEllwyn1987Maquila: Assembly Plants in Northern Mexico. El Paso: Texas Western Press.
48.
StraubhaarThomas1988On the Economics of International Labor Migration. Bern: Haupt.
49.
TaylorJ.E.1987“Undocumented Mexico-U.S. Migration and the Returns to Households in Rural Mexico,”American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 69:626–638.
50.
TeitelbaumMichael1985Latin Migration North. New York: Council on Foreign Relations.
51.
U.S. Agency for International Development1992Latin America and the Caribbean: Selected Economic and Social Data. Washington: USAID.
52.
U.S. Department of Labor, International Labor Affairs Bureau1989The Effects of Immigration on the U.S. Economy. Washington: ILAB.
53.
WeintraubSidney1990A Marriage of Convenience: Relations between Mexico and the United States. New York: Oxford University Press.
54.
WeintraubSidney1984Free Trade between Mexico and the United States. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
55.
World Bank1992World Development Report 1992. New York: Oxford University Press for the World Bank.
56.
Yúnez-NaudeAntonio1991“Towards a Free Trade Agreement between Mexico and the U.S.A.: Effects on Mexican Primary, Non-Mineral Sectors.” Unpublished paper. Mexico City: Centro de Estudio Economicos, El Colegio de México.
57.
Yúnez-NaudeAntonioBlanno-JassoRamón1991“Mexican Foreign Trade of Agricultural and Livestock Products: Tendencies and Impacts of Alternative Policies.” In Regional and Sectoral Development in Mexico as Alternatives to Migration. Boulder, CO: Westview.
58.
ZabinCarol1993Mixtec Migrants in California Agriculture: A New Cycle of Rural Poverty. Davis, CA: California Institute for Rural Studies.
