“I Know I'll Get an A”: Confident Overestimation of Final Course Grades

Abstract

Undergraduates enrolled in advanced courses in psychology estimated their final course grades at the beginning of the semester. Estimates were collected before students received information about instructors’ requirements and grading practices. Students were grouped by their cumulative grade point averages (GPAs) from the previous semester. Differences were observed in estimated and actual grades earned. Low-GPA subjects showed the greatest overestimation of their final grades. Although high-GPA students did not significantly overestimate their grades, almost 50% of their estimates were over estimations. Confidence ratings were also collected. High-GPA students were significantly more confident about their estimates than were low-GPA students, perhaps indicating that low-GPA students possessed some awareness that their estimates were inaccurate.