I Knew-It-All-Along,Just Not on My Own

Abstract

Do the multiple steps of a math problem increase the likelihood of hindsight bias in students? It is a ubiquitious phenomenon whereby the outcome seems obvious. Students were randomly assigned either to a foresight group, in which they solved the multiple steps of a paired comparison t-test, or a hindsight group, in which they did not solve the steps of the paired comparison t-test but the correct answers were present. They were then asked to make chance and difficulty estimations for each step. Students in the hindsight condition believed they had a greater chance of a correct solution and that it was easier than foresight students. Teachers using the same instructive approach may foster hindsight bias in students and themselves and perhaps, the lecture format as well.