Over the past 20 years, an extensive literature has focused on the role of courts in shaping public policy and management. Yet despite the continuing interest in the topic, very little "hard" evidence exists on the actual impact of court interventions in public agencies. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of court orders and mandates on public programs in one of the most important areas of judicial intervention, local jails. The authors' findings for a national sample of jails in 1983 and 1988 confirm that court orders do influence the decision to expand the capacity of local jails. However, other jail-related factors—the level of overcrowding and jail age-actually have stronger impacts on the probability that a jurisdiction will decide to expand capacity than does the presence of a court order. These results imply a reconsideration of the conventional wisdom that court orders force reluctant elected officials to vote for unpopular capital projects, such as jails. The authors' findings indicate that many jurisdictions, given adequate fiscal resources, are likely to plan for capital expansion when they need it—not when forced by the courts to act.
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