Simple Models for Powerful Results

Abstract

The gap between academic literature and a practitioner's desk is often forbidding. Complex, but elegant, methods applied to simple problems widen that gap. When the desk is in an office of a subunit of local government, both academicians and practitioners despair. This study, on the other hand, demonstrates a simple, replicable model with the virtues of conceptual soundness, simplicity, and practitioner confidence. This article reports the development and application of simple difference equation models to the caseload burden of an alcohol treatment program. These system models stimulated the recognition of policy alternatives not considered previously and provided a method for estimating the effects of these alternatives. The simple models produced powerful results with no more complexity than required by high school algebra.