The Unintended Consequences of Policy Change

Abstract

This article utilizes a multiple time series design to investigate the impact that restrictive abortion laws have had on maternal deaths in Romania. That society had an initially "liberal" law but it was reversed by a 1966 decree that greatly limited the circumstances under which a woman may have an abortion.

The research design combined with data collected from the World Health Organization suggest that it is unlikely that a post-1966 increase in the number of abortion deaths in Romania can be attributed either to the effects of history or instrumentation. Implications of this study for the American experience with abortion are discussed briefly. It would seem that in any society a restrictive abortion policy's impact on maternal death is likely to depend on the degree of "tightening."

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

CAMPBELL, D. T. and J. C. STANLEY (1966) Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research. Chicago: Rand McNally.

CAPORASO, J. (1973) "Quasi-experimental approaches to social sciences," pp. 3-37 in J. Caporaso and L. L. Roos (eds.) Quasi-Experimental Approaches. Evanston, IL: Northwestern.

CATES, W. , R. W. ROCHAT , D. A. GRIMES , and C. W. TYLER (1978) "Legalized abortion: effect on national trends of maternal and abortion related mortality (1940 through 1976)." Amer. J. of Obstetrics and Gynecology 132: 211-214.

Center for Disease Control (1969-1977) Abortion Surveillance. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Public Health Service.

COOK, T. D. and D. T. CAMPBELL (1975) "The design and conduct of quasi-experiments and true experiments in field settings," pp. 223-326 in M. D. Dunnette (ed.) Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology. Chicago: Rand McNally.

DAVID, H. P. (1970) Family Planning and Abortion in the Socialist Countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The Population Council.

GOLD, J. and W. CATES (1979) "Restriction of federal funds for abortion: 18 months later." Amer. J. of Public Health 69: 929-930.

MEHLAN, K. H. (1965) "Legal abortions in Romania." J. of Sex Research 1: 31-38.

POTTS, M. , P. DIGGORY , and J. PEEL (1977) Abortion. Cambridge: Cambridge University.

10.

RAO, P. and R. L. MILLER (1971) Applied Econometrics. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.

11.

RUBIN, G. , J. GOLD , and W. CATES (1979) "Response of low income women and abortion facilities to restriction of public funds for abortion: a study of a large metropolitan area." Amer. J. of Public Health 69: 948-950.

12.

SCHEIER, R. and L. J. TELL (1980) "Despite obstacles, most poor women pay for their abortions." The Chicago Reporter 9: 1-3, 8.

13.

TEITELBAUM, M. S. (1972) "Fertility effects of the abolition of legal abortion in Romania." Population Studies 27: 405-417.

14.

World Health Organization (1956-1977) World Health Statistics Annual. Geneva.

15.

WRIGHT, N. H. (1975) "Restricting legal abortion: some maternal and child health effects in Romania." Amer. J. of Obstetrics and Gynecology 121: 246-256.