Modeling Central Asia’s Choices in Containing COVID-19: A Multivariate Study

Abstract

Different countries have adopted different policies in their fight against the COVID-19 outbreak. In this work we aim to model these approaches with respect to the first wave of COVID-19 (from January to October 2020) in the five Central Asian republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan). By means of a multivariate approach based on principal component analysis and cluster analysis, we derived three clusters. Each of these represents a different strategy adopted by a group of governments in a given period of the first wave: pre-pandemic, initial reaction, and emergency scenarios. The contribution of these results is two-fold: on the one hand they may help us to understand differences and similarities among Central Asian republics during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak and guide future quantitative or qualitative studies; on the other hand, our findings suggest that, with the exception of Turkmenistan, the different countries adopted very similar strategies and that deaths, more than cases, pushed governments to impose restrictions.

Keywords

COVID-19 Central Asia government response CA PCA OxCGRT

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