Predicting the Size of UN Peacekeeping Operations

Abstract

We present a statistical model that predicts the force size of United Nations peacekeeping operations, relying on experiences from thirty-nine peacekeeping operations over the period 1945-1994. As we expected, the type of mission performed by the peacekeeping operation was a major factor in determining force size. Although the second-generation mission category includes a panoply of different mission types, these new peacekeeping operations still on average require almost 12,000 more personnel than observer operations. Our results indicate, however, that the size of a peacekeeping operation is not solely a function of mission type; the context of the conflict situation matters as well. Specifically, the severity of the violence in the crisis precipitating UN intervention has a significant effect, as does the addition of more actors to the conflict. In general, the geographic characteristics of the area (except the size of the deployment area), the type of conflict (civil or interstate), and superpower involvement had no statistically significant effects.