Determninants of Enlistments in the U.S. Army Reserve

Abstract

Existing research on manpower supply to the Selected Reserves has provided only sketchy evidence at best on the effects of such important supply factors as pay, unemployment, and recruitment policies. This paper provides improved empirical estimates of the supply relationships underlying Army Reserve enlistments using a data base composed of 967 local Reserve-market" areas.A market area is constructed as a circle with a radius of 35 miles from an existing Army Reserve Center. The empirical results provide plausible estimated elasticities of the reserve-civilian pay ratio, local unemployment and migration rates, recruiters, mission, and interservice competition. These estimates offer a more solid foundation for setting future reserve recruiting, compensation, and manpower policies.