Economic Sanctions and Civil–Military Relations in Target Countries

Abstract

How do economic sanctions affect civil–military relations in targeted states? Though much research has focused on how external military threats affect civil–military relations, no study to date has offered a thorough assessment of the degree to which non-military threats, particularly sanctions, alter civil–military dynamics. We posit that sanctions alter civil–military bargaining in ways that increase the military’s role in political decision-making, ultimately lessening civilian control. However, we also posit that targeted regime leaders want to fulfill as many of the military’s demands as possible with their restricted pot of resources, ultimately leading to sanctions’ limited role in observed coup attempts. We substantiate our theoretical claims using time-series, cross-national data on economic sanctions, civilian control, and coup attempts.