Clinton's Military Strikes in 1998: Diversionary Uses of Force?

Abstract

Much research addresses the possibility of "diversionary uses of force" by American presidents. Nearly all of it employs aggreated time-series data sets, testing for the relevance of factors such as the domestic economy's strength, public approaval ratings for the president, perceptions of the levels of "international tension," or the partisan makeup of Congress when a president uses force. Many believed that President Bill Clinton used force on Usama Bin Laden and on Iraq in 1998 to distract the public from his personal problems. In a new case study approach, this article explores four propositions regarding diversionary uses of force to examine these two Clinton military strikes. Analysis of them suggests that it is unlikely, especially in the strikes on Usama Bin Laden, that force was used for diversionary purposes.