Evaluating the Predictive Validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) Risk Assessment Tool for Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Youth

Abstract

There is limited predictive validity research available on the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) with Indigenous youth. The current study completed YLS/CMI discrimination and calibration analyses on a randomly selected sample of justice-involved Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth (N = 1,259). Survival analysis indicated that predictive validity was maintained across groups when using the total score; however, moderate risk Indigenous youth were not more likely to reoffend than low risk Indigenous youth. Area Under the Curve values were significant and large for general and moderate for violent recidivism, although values for time-dependent analyses were somewhat weaker for Indigenous youth. Calibration analyses suggested Indigenous youth were more likely to have a violent re-offense across low and moderate risk levels. While the YLS/CMI demonstrates predictive validity for Indigenous youth, it may underestimate recidivism for Indigenous youth classified as low risk, suggesting greater intervention may be warranted.