Correlates of prison violence and the classification accuracy of an actuarial model were examined from retrospective review of the disciplinary records of former death row inmates in Texas ( N = 111) who had been predicted to commit future violence at trial and subsequently obtained relief from their death sentences between 1989 and 2008. Correlates of “potentially” violent infractions included age (inversely), intellectual capability (inversely), prior violent crime arrest, and gun-only weapon used in murder (inversely). An actuarial scale constructed from the sample was modestly (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.690) associated with combined violence on death row and in the broader prison population, as were scales constructed previously from other samples (AUC = 0.609 to 0.656). Although AUCs for serious assaults in three models were relatively high (AUC = 0.799 to 0.831), low base rates result in these actuarial scales having high false positive rates (e.g., 76%) in identifying offenders who will commit serious prison assaults.
Akman, D.D. ( 1966). Homicides and assaults in Canadian penitentiaries . Canadian Journal of Corrections, 8, 284-299.
2.
Alberg, A.J., Park, J.W., Hager, B.W., Brock, M.V., & Diener-West, M. (2004). The use of "overall accuracy" to evaluate the validity of screening or diagnostic tests. Journal of General Internal Medicine, 19, 460-465.
3.
Baskin, D.H., Sommers, I., & Steadman, H.J. (1991). Assessing the impact of psychiatric impairment on prison violence. Journal of Criminal Justice, 19, 271-280.
4.
Berk, R., Brown, L.B., & Zhao, L. ( 2010). Statistical inference after model selection. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 26, 217-236.
5.
Berk, R.A., Kriegler, B., & Baek, J.H. ( 2006). Forecasting dangerous inmate misconduct: An application of ensemble statistical procedures. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 22, 131-145.
6.
Buffington-Vollum, J.K., Edens, J.F., & Keilen, A. ( 2008). Predicting institutional violence among death row inmates: The utility of the Sorensen and Pilgrim model. Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, 23, 16-22.
7.
Camp, S.G., Gaes, G.G., Langan, N.P., & Saylor, W.G. ( 2003). The influence of prisons on inmate misconduct: A multilevel investigation. Justice Quarterly, 20, 501-533.
8.
Cooper, R., & Werner, P. ( 1990). Predicting violence in newly admitted inmates . Criminal Justice and Behavior, 17, 431-477.
9.
Cunningham, M.D. ( 2006). Dangerousness and death: A nexus in search of science and reason. American Psychologist, 61, 828-839.
10.
Cunningham, M.D., Reidy, T.J., & Sorensen, J.R. (2008). Assertions of "future dangerousness" at federal capital sentencing: Rates and correlates of subsequent prison misconduct and violence. Law and Human Behavior, 32, 46-63.
11.
Cunningham, M.D., & Sorensen, J.R. (2006a). Actuarial models for assessment of prison violence risk: Revisions and extensions of the Risk Assessment Scale for Prison (RASP). Assessment, 13, 253-265.
12.
Cunningham, M.D., & Sorensen, J.R. (2006b). Nothing to lose? A comparative examination of prison misconduct rates among life-without-parole and other long-term high security inmates. Criminal Justice and Behavior , 33, 683-705.
13.
Cunningham, M.D., & Sorensen, J.R. (2007a). Capital offenders in Texas prisons: Rates, correlates, and an actuarial analysis of violent misconduct . Law and Human Behavior, 31, 553-571.
14.
Cunningham, M.D., & Sorensen, J.R. (2007b). Predictive factors for violent misconduct in close custody. Prison Journal, 87, 241-253.
15.
Cunningham, M.D., Sorensen, J.R., & Reidy, T.J. ( 2005). An actuarial model for assessment of prison violence risk among maximum security inmates. Assessment, 12, 40-49.
16.
Cunningham, M.D., Sorensen, J.R., & Reidy, T.J. ( 2009). Capital jury decision-making: The limitations of predictions of future violence. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 15, 233-256.
Cunningham, M.D., Sorensen, J.R., Vigen, M.P., & Woods, S.O. (in press). Life and death in the Lone Star State: Three decades of violence predictions by capital juries. Behavioral Sciences & the Law.
19.
Daggett, D.M., & Camp, S. D. (2009). Do official misconduct data tell the same story as the individuals who live in prison? Criminal Justice Review , 34, 428-449.
20.
Davis, D.L. ( 1996, August). An assessment of prisoner assaults on corrections officers. Corrections Compendium, pp. 6-10.
21.
DeLisi, M., Berg, M.T., & Hochstetler, A. (2004). Gang members, career criminals and prison violence: Further specification of the importation model of inmate behavior. Criminal Justice Studies, 17, 369-383.
22.
Drury, A.J., & DeLisi, M. (2008). Gangkill: An exploratory empirical assessment of gang membership, homicide offending, and prison misconduct . Crime & Delinquency. Advance online publication. http://cad.sagepub.com/
23.
Edens, J.F., Buffington-Vollum, J.K., Keilen, A., Roskamp, P., & Anthony, C. ( 2005). Predictions of future dangerousness in capital murder trials: Is it time to "disinvent the wheel"? Law and Human Behavior, 29, 55-86.
24.
Gaes, G.G., Wallace, S., Gilman, E., Klein-Saffran, J., & Suppa, S. ( 2002). The influence of gang affiliation on violence and other prison misconduct. Prison Journal, 82, 359-385.
25.
Gendreau, P., Goggin, C.E., & Law, M.A. ( 1997). Predicting prison misconducts. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 24, 414-431.
26.
Gottfredson, D.M., & Snyder, H.N. ( 2005). The mathematics of risk calculation: Changing data into valid instruments for juvenile courts. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention .
27.
Harer, M.D., & Langan, N.P. ( 2001). Gender differences in predictors of prison violence: Assessing the predictive validity of a risk classification system. Crime & Delinquency, 47, 513-536.
Huebner, B.M. ( 2003). Administrative determinants of inmates violence: A multilevel analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice, 31, 107-117.
30.
James, D.J., & Glaze, L.E. ( 2006). Mental health problems of prison and jail inmates (Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report NCJ 213600, revised December 14, 2006). Retrieved from http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/mhppji.pdf
31.
Jiang, S., & Fisher-Giorlando, M. (2002). Inmate misconduct: A test of the deprivation, importation, and situational models. Prison Journal, 82, 335-358.
32.
Johnson v. California, 545 U.S. 162 (2005).
33.
Kuanliang, A., Sorensen, J.R., & Cunningham, M.D. (2008). Juvenile offenders in an adult prison system: A comparative examination of rates and correlates of misconduct. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 35, 1186-1201.
34.
Lahm, K.F. ( 2008). Inmate-on-inmate assault: A multilevel examination of prison violence. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 35, 120-137.
35.
Lahm, K.F. ( 2009). Inmate assaults on prisons staff: A multilevel examination of an overlooked form of prison violence. Prison Journal, 89, 131-150.
36.
Marquart, J.W., Ekland-Olson, S., & Sorensen, J.R. (1989). Gazing into the crystal ball: Can jurors accurately predict dangerousness in capital cases? Law and Society Review, 23, 449-468.
37.
McCorkle, R.C., Miethe, T.D., & Drass, K.A. ( 1995). The roots of prison violence: A test of the deprivation, management, and "not so total" institution models. Crime & Delinquency, 41, 317-331.
38.
McFall, R.M., & Treat, T.A. ( 1999). Quantifying the information value of clinical assessments with signal detection theory. Annual Review of Psychology , 50, 215-241.
39.
Monahan, J. ( 1981). Predicting violent behavior: An assessment of clinical techniques. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
40.
Morris, R.G., Longmire, D.R., Buffington-Vollum, J., & Vollum, S. ( 2010). Institutional misconduct and differential parole eligibility among capital inmates. Criminal Justice and Behavior , 37, 417-438.
41.
Patrick, S. ( 1998). Differences in inmate-inmate and inmate-staff altercations: Examples from a medium security prison. Social Sciences Journal , 35, 253-263.
42.
Porporino, F.J. ( 1986). Managing violent individuals in correctional settings . Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 1, 213-237.
43.
Quay, H. ( 1984). Managing adult inmates: Classification for housing and program assignments. Adult Internal Management System (AIMS) classification manual. College Park, MD: American Correctional Association.
44.
Roper v. Simmons, 543 U.S. 551 (2005)
45.
Saldano v. Texas, 530 U.S. 1212 (2000).
46.
Shapiro, M. ( 2009). An overdose of dangerousness: How "future dangerousness" catches the least culpable capital defendants and undermines the rationale for the executions it supports. American Journal of Criminal Law, 35, 101-156.
47.
Slobogin, C. ( 2009). Capital punishment and dangerousness. In R. F. Schopp, R. L. Wiener, B. H. Bornstein, & S. L. Willborn (Eds.), Mental disorder and criminal law: Responsibility, punishment, and competence (pp. 119-134). New York, NY: Springer.
48.
Sorensen, J.R., & Cunningham, M.D. (2007). Operationalizing risk: The influence of measurement choice on the prevalence and correlates of violence among incarcerated murderers. Journal of Criminal Justice , 35, 546-555.
49.
Sorensen, J.R., & Cunningham, M.D. (2010). Conviction offense and prison violence: A comparative study of murderers and other offenders. Crime & Delinquency, 56, 103-125.
50.
Sorensen, J.R., Cunningham, M.D., Vigen, M.P., & Woods, S.O. ( 2010). Serious assaults on prison staff: A descriptive analysis . Manuscript submitted for publication.
51.
Sorensen, J.R., & Pilgrim, R.L. ( 2000). An actuarial risk assessment of violence posed by capital murder defendants. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology , 90, 1251-1270.
52.
Sorensen, J.R., & Pilgrim, R.L. ( 2006). Lethal injection: Capital punishment in Texas during the modern era. Austin: University of Texas Press.
53.
Steiner, B., & Wooldredge, J. (2008). Inmate versus environmental effects on prison rule violations. Criminal Justice and Behavior , 35, 438-456.
54.
Steiner, B., & Wooldredge, J. (2009a). Implications of different outcome measures for an understanding of inmate misconduct. Crime & Delinquency. Advance online publication. http://cad.sagepub.com
55.
Steiner, B., & Wooldredge, J. (2009b). The relevance of inmate race/ethnicity versus population composition for understanding prison rule violators. Punishment and Society, 11(4), 459-489.
56.
Steinke, P. ( 1991). Using situational factors to predict types of prison violence. Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, 17, 119-132.
