The study examined 534 hostage and barricade incidents. Its objective was to present an integrated and formalized vision of current conceptualizations of critical incidents to optimize decision making. To this end, logistic regression and recursive partitioning models are presented and compared. In all, 18 distinct static and dynamic individual and situational factors were used to predict various outputs during this type of situation. Results highlight the importance of considering the origin of the emergency call and being barricaded in one's home in the assessment of perpetrator's propensity for violence, the fact that time is not always on the police's side during critical incidents, and the relatively minor importance of hostage taking in the general comprehension of these high-risk events.
Brownfield, D. (1986). Social class and violent behavior. Criminology, 24, 421-438.
4.
Call, J.A. (2003). Negotiating crises: The evolution of hostage/barricade crisis negotiation. Journal of Threat Assessment, 2(3), 69-94.
5.
Cross, S.E., & Madson, L. (1997). Models of the self: Self-construals and gender . Psychological Bulletin, 122, 5-37.
6.
DeLong, E.R., DeLong, D.M., & Clarke-Pearson, D.L. (1988). Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: A nonparametric approach. Biometrics, 44, 837-845.
7.
Fagan, J. (1990). Intoxication and aggression. In M. Tonry & J. Q. Wilson (Eds.), Crime and justice: Vol. 13. Drugs and crime (pp. 241-320). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
8.
Fagan, J. (1993). Interactions among drugs, alcohol, and violence . Health Affairs, 12(4), 65-79.
9.
Farrington, D.P. (1998). Predictors, causes, and correlates of male youth violence. In M. Tonry & M. H. Moore (Eds.), Crime and justice: Vol. 24. Youth violence (pp. 421-475). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
10.
Flood, J., & Dalfonzo, V. (2005, October). Critical incident. Paper presented at the 11th Crisis Negotiation Seminar, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
11.
Fuselier, G.D. (1981). A practical overview of hostage negotiations [Part I and Conclusion]. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, 50(6-7), 2-6, 10-15.
12.
Fuselier, G.D., Van Zandt, C.R., & Lanceley, F.J. (1991). High risk factors and the "action criteria" in hostage/barricade situations. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, 60(1), 6-12.
13.
Garb, H.N. (1998). Studying the clinician: Judgment research and psychological assessment. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
14.
Grove, W.M., & Meehl, P.E. (1996). Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical-statistical controversy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2, 293-323.
15.
Grove, W.M., Zald, D.H., Hallberg, A.M., Lebow, B., Snitz, E., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis . Psychological Assessment, 12, 19-30.
16.
Hare, R.D. (1991). The Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. Toronto, Ontario, Canada: Multi-Health Systems.
17.
Hare, R.D. (2003). Manual for the Revised Psychopathy Checklist (2nd ed.). Toronto, Ontario, Canada: Multi-Health Systems.
18.
Hatcher, C., Mohandie, K., Turner, J., & Gelles, M.G. (1998). The role of the psychologist in crisis/hostage negotiations. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 16, 455-472.
19.
Henriques, G., Wenzel, A., Brown, G.K., & Beck, A.T. (2005). Suicide attempters' reaction to survival as a risk factor for eventual suicide. American Journal of Psychiatry , 162, 2180-2182.
20.
Isometsa, E.T., Henriksson, M.M., Aro, H.M., Heikkinen, M.E., Kuoppasalmi, K.I., & Lonnqvist, J.K. (1994). Suicide in major depression . American Journal of Psychiatry, 151, 530-536.
21.
Kenway, J., & Fitzclarence, L. (1997). Masculinity, violence and schooling: Challenging "poisonous pedagogies."Gender and Education, 9, 117-133.
22.
Kessler, R.C., Borges, G., & Walters, E.E. (1999). Prevalence of and risk factors for lifetime suicide attempts in the National Comorbidity Survey. Archives of General Psychiatry, 56, 617-626.
23.
Landis, J.R., & Koch, G.G. (1977). The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics, 33, 159-174.
24.
Link, B.G., & Stueve, A. (1994). Psychotic symptoms and the violent/illegal behavior of mental patients compared to community controls. In J. Monahan & H. J. Steadman (Eds.), Violence and mental disorder: Developments in risk assessment (pp. 137-159). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
25.
Loeber, R., & Hay, D. (1997). Key issues in the development of aggression and violence from childhood to early adulthood. Annual Review of Psychology, 48, 371-410.
26.
McAuley, F. (1993). Insanity, psychiatry and criminal responsibility . Dublin, Ireland: Round Hall Press .
27.
McMains, M.J., & Mullins, W.C. (2001). Crisis negotiations: Managing critical incidents and hostage situations in law enforcement and corrections (2nd ed.). Cincinnati, OH: Anderson .
28.
Meehl, P.E. (1954). Clinical versus statistical prediction. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press .
29.
Michaud, P., St-Yves, M., & Guay, J.P. (2008). Analyse descriptive des situations de prise d'otages et de barricade au Québec [A descriptive analysis of hostage and barricade incidents in Quebec]. Revue Internationale de Criminologie et de Police Technique et Scientifique, 61, 133-150.
30.
Monahan, J. (1981). Predicting violent behavior: An assessment of clinical techniques. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
31.
Monahan, J., & Steadman, H. J. (Eds.). (1994). Violence and mental disorder: Developments in risk assessment. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
32.
Mullins, W.C. (2003). The role of the first responder at a hostage situation . Journal of Police Crisis Negotiations: An International Journal, 3(1), 31-49.
33.
Murphy, G.E., & Wetzel, R.D. (1990). The lifetime risk of suicide in alcoholism. Archives of General Psychiatry, 47, 383-392.
34.
Noesner, G.W. (1999). Negotiation concepts for commanders. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, 68(1), 6-14.
35.
Noesner, G.W., & Dolan, J.T. (1992). First responder negotiation training. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, 61(8), 1-4.
36.
Parker, R.N., & Auerhahn, K. (1998). Alcohol, drugs, and violence. Annual Review of Sociology, 24, 291-311.
Rodriguez, E., Lasch, K.E., Chandra, P., & Lee, J. (2001). Family violence, employment status, welfare benefits, and alcohol drinking in the United States: What is the relation?Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 55, 172-178.
39.
Roy, A. (1983). Family history of suicide. Archives of General Psychiatry, 40, 971-974.
40.
Salekin, R.T., Rogers, R., & Sewell, K.W. (1996). A review and meta-analysis of the Psychopathy Checklist and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised: Predictive validity of dangerousness . Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 3, 203-215.
Soskis, D.A., & Van Zandt, C.R. (1986). Hostage negotiation: Law enforcement's most effective nonlethal weapon. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 4, 423-435.
44.
Strentz, T. (2005). Psychological aspects of crisis negotiation. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
45.
St-Yves, M., Michaud, P., & Tanguay, M. (2007). L'évaluation des risques en situation de crise [Risk assessment in crisis situation]. In M. St-Yves & M. Tanguay (Eds.), Psychologie de l'enquête criminelle: La recherche de la vérité (pp. 363-376). Cowansville, Quebec, Canada: Éditions Yvon Blais.
46.
St-Yves, M., & Tanguay, M. (2007). Psychologie de la négociation de crise [Psychology of crisis negotiation]. In M. St-Yves & M. Tanguay (Eds.), Psychologie de l'enquête criminelle: La recherche de la vérité (pp. 327-362). Cowansville, Quebec, Canada: Éditions Yvon Blais.
47.
Swets, J.A. (1988). Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240, 1285-1293.
48.
Van Zandt, C.R. (1991). Hostage situations: Separating negotiation and command duties. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, 60(1), 18-19.
49.
Vecchi, G.M., Van Hasselt, V.B., & Romano, S.J. (2005). Crisis (hostage) negotiation: Current strategies and issues in high-risk conflict resolution. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 10, 533-551.
50.
Webster, C.D., Douglas, K.S., Eaves, D., & Hart, S.D. (1997). HCR-20: Assessing risk for violence (2nd ed.). Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada: Simon Fraser University, Mental Health, Law, and Policy Institute.
51.
Webster, C.D., Martin, M.-L., Brink, J., Nicholls, T.L., & Middleton, C. (2004). The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START). Hamilton and Port Coquitlam, British Columbia , Canada: St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton and Forensic Psychiatric Services Commission.
52.
Zimmerman, L.A. (2006). Law enforcement decision making during critical incidents: A three-pronged approach to understanding and enhancing law enforcement decision processes. Dissertation Abstracts International, 67(04). (UMI No. 3214014)
