This article explores the informational assumptions in Noelle-Neumann's spiral of silence theory. It is based empirically on data from in-depth interviews employing the “thinking aloud” protocols methodology, and survey data from Israel during the Intifada. Our respondents base their estimates of the climate of opinion on a broader, sounder, and more robust information array than the rather narrow and socially based overt opinion expression cues assumed by Noelle-Neumann. Different information cues are used for assessing opinion distributions and opinion trends. Aggregate trend analysis further supports the inconsistency between these alternative indicators of the climate of opinion. These results are discussed within the framework of structural constraints and major competing approaches to public opinion. The information environment is suggested to be the primary factor in specifying the role of social adjustment mechanisms versus event information in determining the direction in which public opinion evolves.
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