Little research has focused on the media's influence during presidential campaigns. In this article we examine the relative levels of media coverage given candidates before the nominating conventions of 1976. Using a dynamic model, we find that a candidate's relative level of media attention is often a significant predictor of his popularity over time.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BERELSON, B.
, P. LAZARSFELD, and W. McPHEE (1948) Voting. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.
2.
BISHOP, G. F.
, R. W. OLDENDICK, and A. J. TUCHFARBER (1978) “Effects of question wording and format on political attitude consistency.”Public Opinion Q. 42: 81-92.
3.
BOX, G.E.P.
and G. M. JENKINS (1976) Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San Francisco: Holden-Day.
4.
BRODY, R. A.
and B. I. PAGE (1975) “The impact of events on presidential popularity: the Johnson and Nixon adminsistrations,” pp. 136-148 in A. Wildavsky (ed.), Perspectives on the Presidency. Boston: Little, Brown.
5.
BRUNK, G. G.
(1978) “The 1964 attitude consistency leap reconsidered.”Pol. Methodology5: 347-359.
6.
ERBRING, L.
, E. N. GOLDBERG, and A. H. MILLER (1980) “Front-page news and real-world clues: a new look at agenda-setting by the media.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci. 24: 16-49.
7.
ERIKSON, R. S.
(1976) “The influence of newspaper endorsements in presidential elections: the case of 1964.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci. 20: 207-233.
8.
GOLDSTEIN, J.
(1979) “Candidate popularity and campaign constributions in the presidential nomination stage of the presidential selection process: the case of the 1976 election.”Presidential Studies Q. 9: 329-333.
9.
GRABER, D.
(1976) “Press and TV as opinion resources in presidential campaigns.”Public Opinion Q. 40: 285-303.
10.
GRABER, D.
(1971) “The press as opinion resource during the 1968 presidential campaign.”Public Opinion Q. 35: 168-182.
11.
HAIGHT, T. R. (1979) “The mass media and presidential popularity, 1961-1976.” Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University.
12.
HAIGHT, T. R.
and R. A. BRODY (1977) “The mass media and presidential popularity: broadcasting and news in the Nixon administration.”Communication Research4: 41-60.
13.
HOOPER, M.
(1969) “Party and newspaper endorsements as predictors of vote change.”Journalism Q. 37: 302-305.
14.
JACOBSEN, G. C.
(1975) “The impact of broadcast campaigning on electoral outcomes.”J. of Politics37: 769-793.
15.
KEY, V. O., Jr.
(1949) Southern Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
16.
KEY, V. O., Jr.
(1962) Public Opinion and American Democracy. New York: Knopf.
17.
KLAPPER, J. T.
(1960) The Effects of Mass Communication. New York: Free Press.
18.
KMENTA, J.
(1971) Elements of Econometrics. New York: Macmillan.
19.
KRAMER, G. H.
(1971) “Short-run fluctuations in U.S. voting behaviour: 1896-1964.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 65: 131-143.
20.
LAZARSFELD, P. B.BERELSON
, and H. GAUDET (1948) The People's Choice. New York: Columbia Univ. Press.
21.
MEADOW, R. G.
(1976) “Issue emphasis and public opinion: the media during the 1972 presidential campaign.”Amer. Politics Q. 4: 177-192.
22.
MONROE, K.
(1981) “Presidential popularity: an Almon distributed lag model.”Pol. Methodology8: 43-69.
23.
MONROE, K.
(1979) “Economic analysis of electoral behavior: a critical review.”Pol. Behavior1: 137-173.
24.
MULLER, J. E.
(1970) “Choosing among 133 candidates.”Public Opinion Q. 44: 395-402.
25.
PATTERSON, T. E.
and R. D. McCLURE (1974) Political Advertising: Voter Reaction to Televised Political Commercials. Princeton: Citizen's Research Foundation.
26.
ROBINSON, J. P.
(1974) “The press as king-maker: what surveys from the last five campaigns show.”Journalism Q. 51: 587-594.
27.
ROBINSON, J. P.
(1972) “Perceived media bias and the 1968 vote: can the media affect behavior after all?”Journalism Q. 49: 239-246.
28.
SCARROW, H. A.
and S. BORMAN (1979) “The effects of newspaper endorsements on election outcomes: a case study.”Public Opinion Q. 43: 388-393.
29.
SEARS, D. O.
and R. E. WHITNEY (1973) “Political persuasion,” pp. 253-280 in I. de Sola Pool et al. (eds.) Handbook of Communication. Chicago: Rand McNally.
30.
SIMON, H. A.
and F. STERN (1955) “The effect of television upon voting behavior in the 1952 presidential election.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 49: 470-477.
31.
SINGLETON, D. L.
(1976) “The role of broadcasting in presidential popularity: exploration in presidential power.” Presented to the annual meeting of the International Communications Association. Portland, Oregon.
32.
STONE, P.
and R. A. BRODY (1970) “Modeling opinion responsiveness to daily news: the public and Lyndon Johnson, 1965-1968.”Social Science Information9: 95-121.
33.
WEISS, W.
(1969) “Effects of the mass media on communication,” pp. 71-195 in G. Lindzey and E. Aronson (eds.) Handbook of Social Psychology 5. Reading: Addison-Wesley.