New Jersey's Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale: Preliminary Validity Data

Abstract

The Registrant Risk Assessment Scale (RRAS) was developed to aid New Jersey law enforcement representatives in assigning convicted sex offenders to risk tier classifications. The three risk tier classifications (low, moderate, and high risk) are linked to corresponding levels of community notification. The present study examined the scores of 574 adult males convicted of sex offenses in New Jersey on the seven RRAS items that assess static indicators of recidivism risk. Based on sentencing decisions, the sample included three groups of offenders: probationers, state prisoners, and those assigned to the Adult Diagnostic and Treatment Center (ADTC), an inpatient sex offender treatment facility for repetitive and compulsive offenders. An exploratory factor analysis of the RRAS items identified two important orthogonal factors: a forcible assault factor and a sexual deviance factor. One-way ANOVAs revealed significant differences among the three placement groups, with state prisoners tending to score highest on items reflecting antisocial orientation and forcible sexual assault and ADTC offenders scoring highest on items reflecting deviant sexual behavior. A discriminant analysis generated two distinct functions that classified well over half of the sample into their correct sentencing groups. Taken as a whole, the results provide preliminary support for the use of the RRAS in making sex offender risk determinations.