Abstract
As clinical projects reach “go” or “no go” decision points, the number of persons actually needed to support these programs will vary. When a portfolio of projects exists, with compounds in various stages of development, accurate predictions of headcount needs has traditionally been very difficult. Legitimate uncertainty regarding project outcomes is a primary factor. Moreover, budgetary constraints often exist which may conflict with proposed changes in headcount. Lacking the tools to readily identify such conflicts in advance, portfolio managers may unknowingly misjudge both budgetary and personnel needs. The current work develops a simple, predictive model for determining the overall changes in headcount associated with any combination of go/no go decisions for a portfolio of any size. The model is linear and simple to use. It provides the best estimate of personnel needs independently of managers' views about whether a given project will succeed. Finally, it may be used to test the consistency of assumptions about changes in budget, changes in personnel, and the success or failure of projects.
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