A published case report of exfoliative dermatitis in a previously healthy 16-year-old boy is analyzed using the Bayesian approach. Two candidate drugs, lithium carbonate and thioridazine, are considered, and all five case information categories contribute likelihood ratios that progressively point to lithium as the probable cause. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the inference of lithium causation is “insensitive” to feasible alterations in the constituent probability estimates.
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