There are two distinct groups of emerging issues in the
area of sales forecasting and decision support systems:
methodological issues and implementational issues. This
paper discusses each of them. The discussion of implemen
tational issues includes some results of a survey of fore
casting practice. The paper serves as a preface to the
special section on sales forecasting and decision support
systems and introduces the papers included in the special section.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Armstrong, J. Scott.1985. Long-range forecasting: From crystal ball to computer . 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley.
2.
—. 1987. "The Forecasting Audit." In The Handbook of Forecasting A Manager's Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Madridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York: John Wiley.
3.
—, Roderick J. Brodie, and Shelby H. McIntyre.1987. "Forecasting Methods for Marketing Review of Empirical Research." International Journal of Forecasting3: 355-376.
4.
Ashton, Alison Hubbard and Robert H. Ashton .1985. "Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results." Management Science31 (December): 1499-1508.
5.
Assmus, Gert.1984. "New Product Forecasting."Journal of Forecasting3: 121-138.
6.
Bass, Frank M.1987. "Misspecification and the Inherent Randomness of the Model are at the Heart of the Brodie and de Kluyver enigma." International Journal of Forecasting3: 441-444.
7.
Berkowitz, M.K. and G.H. Haines, Jr. 1984. "Forecasting Future Canadian Residential Heating Demand: An Illustration of Forecasting with Aggregated and Disaggregated Data ." Journal of Forecasting3: 217-227.
8.
Bopp, Anthony E.1985. "On Combining Forecasts: Some Extensions and Results ." Management Science31 (December): 1492-1498.
9.
Brodie, Roderick J. and C.A. de Kluyver .1984. "Attraction Versus Linear and Multiplicative Market Share Models: An Empirical Evaluation." Journal of Marketing Research21 (May): 194-201.
10.
—. 1987. "A Comparison of the Short Term Forecasting Accuracy of Econometric and Naive Extrapolation Models of Market Share." International Journal of Forecasting3: 423-437.
11.
Cattin, Philippe and D.R. Wittink.1982. "Commercial use of conjoint analysis: A survey. Journal of Marketing46: 44-53.
12.
Currim, Imran S. and Rakesh K. Sarin .1983. "A Procedure for Measuring and Estimating Consumer Preferences Under Uncertainty." Journal of Marketing Research20 (August): 249-56.
13.
Dalrymple, Douglas J.1975. "Sales forecasting methods and accuracy." Business Horizons18: 33-39.
14.
—. 1987. "Sales Forecasting Practices Results from a United States Survey." International Journal of Forecasting3: 379-391.
15.
Davidson, Timothy A. and Laurence Prusak .1987. "Selecting and Using External Data Sources and Forecasting Services to support a Forecasting Strategy." In The Handbook of Forecasting A Manager's Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York: John Wiley.
16.
Dino, Richard N.1987. "Price Forecasting Using Experience Curves and The Product Life-Cycle Concept." In The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York: John Wiley.
17.
Enns, Phillip, Joseph Machak and W. Spivey.1982. "Forecasting Applications of an Adaptive Multiple Exponential Smoothing Model." Management Science28 (September): 1035-1044.
18.
Faruqui, Ahmad.1987. "Preface - On the Search for Accuracy in Electric Utility Forecasting." Journal of Forecasting6: 93-95.
19.
Fildes, Robert.1987. "Forecasting: The Issues." In The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York: John Wiley.
20.
Fischler, Edward B. and Robert F. Nelson .1986. "Integrating Time-Series and End-use Methods to Forecast Electricity Sales." Journal of Forecasting5: 15-30.
21.
Flores, Benito and Edna White.1988. "A Framework for the Combination of Forecasts." Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, this issue.
22.
Geurts, Michael.1988. "The Impact of Misrepresentative Data Patterns on Sales Forecasting Accuracy." Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, this issue.
23.
— and J. Patrick Kelly .1986 "Forecasting retail sales using alternative models." International Journal of Forecasting2 (3): 257-395.
24.
Ghosh, A., S. Neslin and R. Shoemaker.1984. "A Comparison of Market Share Models and Estimation Procedures." Journal of Marketing Research21 (May): 202-10.
25.
Goslar, Martin D. and Stephen W. Brown .1986. "Decision Support Systems: Advantages in Consumer Marketing Settings." Journal of Consumer Marketing3 (Summer): 43-50.
26.
Green, Paul E. and D.S. Tull.1978. Research for Marketing Decisions Fourth Edition. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
27.
Hagerty, Michael R.1987. "Conditions under which Econometric Models will Outperform Naive Models." International Journal of Forecasting3: 457-460.
28.
Hanssens, Dominique M.1980. "Market Response, Competitive Behavior, and Time Series Analysis." Journal of Marketing Research17 (November): 470-85.
29.
Hogarth, Robin M. and S. Makridakis.1981. "Forecasting and planning: An evaluation ." Management Science27: 115-138.
30.
Hughes, David G.1987. "Sales Forecasting Requirements." In The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York: John Wiley.
31.
Jobber, David and Martin Watts.1986. "Behavioral Aspects of Marketing Information Systems." OMEGA International Journal of Management Science14 (1): 69-79.
32.
Kapoor, S.G., P. Madhok and S.M. Wu.1981. "Modeling and Forecasting Sales Data by Time Series Analysis." Journal of Marketing Research18 (February): 94-100.
33.
Koehler, Anne B.1985. "Simple vs Complex Extrapolation Models: An Evaluation in the Food Processing Industry." International Journal of ForecastingI: 63-68.
34.
Larreche, Jean-Claude.1987. "Anticipatory Analysis for New Entry Strategies ." In The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York; John Wiley.
35.
Lawrence, M.J.1983. "An Exploration of Some Practical Issues in the Use of Quantitative Forecasting Models." Journal of Forecasting22: 169-179.
36.
—, R.H. Edmundson and M.J. O'Connor.1986. The Accuracy of Combining Judgmental and Statistical Forecasts." Management Science32 (December): 1521-1532.
37.
Leeflang, P.S.H. and Reuyl, J.C.1984. "Further Study and Comments on the Predictive Power of Market Share Attraction Models." Journal of Marketing Research21 (May): 221-5.
38.
Leone, Robert P.1987. "Forecasting the Effect of an Environmental Change On Market Performance An Intervention Time-Series Approach." International Journal of Forecasting3: 463-478.
39.
Levenbach, Hans and James P. Cleary .1984. The Modern Forecaster The Forecasting Process Through Data Analysis. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Company.
40.
Lewandowski, Rudolf.1982. "Sales Forecasting by FORSYS" Journal of Forecasting1: 205-215.
41.
—. 1987. "An Integrated Approach to Medium-and Long-term Forecasting: The Marketing-Mix System." In The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York; John Wiley.
42.
Mabert, Vincent A. and Michael J. Showalter .1987. "Forecasting for Service Products: Concepts and Systems." In The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York: John Wiley.
43.
Mahmoud, E.1984. "Accuracy in Forecasting: A Survey. Journal of Forecasting3 (April-June): 139-160.
44.
— and Naresh Malhotra. 1986. "The Decision-Making Process of Small Business for Microcomputers and Software Selection and Usage." INFOR Information Systems and Operational Research24 (May): 116-133.
45.
Makridakis Spyros.1987. "The Future of Forecasting." In The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York: John Wiley.
46.
—, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, and R. Winkler.1982. "The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods." Journal of Forecasting1 (April-June): 111-154.
47.
—, and R.L. Winkler.1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results." Management Science29: 987-996.
48.
Mentzer, John T.1988. "Forecasting with Adaptive Extended Exponential Smoothing ." Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, this issue.
49.
— and J.E. Cox, Jr. 1984. "Familiarity, Application, and Performance of Sales Forecasting Techniques." Journal of Forecasting3 (January-March): 27-36.
50.
Miller, Don M.1985. "The Anatomy of a Successful Forecasting Implementation ." International Journal of Forecasting1: 69-78.
51.
Moriarty, Mark M.1985. "Design Features of Forecasting Systems Involving Management Judgments." Journal of Marketing Research12 (November): 353-64.
52.
— and ArthurJ. Adams.1984. "Management Judgment Forecasts, Composite Forecasting Models, and Conditional Efficiency." Journal of Marketing Research21 (August): 239-50.
53.
Mullick, Satinder K., Gregory S. Anderson, Robert E. Leach and Ward C. Smith.1987. "Life-Cycle Forecasting." In The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide Second Edition Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York: John Wiley.
54.
Naert, Philippe and M. Weverbergh.1981. "On the Prediction Power of Market Share Attraction Models." Journal of Marketing Research18 (May): 146-53.
55.
—. 1985. "Market Share Specification, Estimation, and Validation: Toward Reconciling Seemingly Divergent Views." Journal of Marketing Research12 (November): 453-61.
56.
Restall, Christine.1987. "Leisure Futures: A Summary of a Recent Study Commissioned by McCann-Erickson Ltd. from the Naisbitt Group." Journal of Marketing Management3: 1-11.
57.
Rice, Gillian and Essam Mahmoud.1984. "Forecasting and Data Bases in International Business." Management International Review24(4): 59-71.
58.
Schnaars, Steven P.1984. "Situational Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy ." Journal of Marketing Research21 (August): 290-7.
59.
— and MartinT. Topol.1987. "The Use of Multiple Scenarios in Sales Forecasting: An Empirical Test." International Journal of Forecasting3: 405-49.
60.
Shipchandler, Zoher E. and James S. Moore.1988. "Examining the Effects of Regression Procedures on the Temporal Stability of Parameter Estimates in Marketing Models ." Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, this issue.
61.
Schultz, Randall L.1984. "The Implementation of Forecasting Models." Journal of Forecasting3: 43-55.
62.
Sparkes, J.R. and A.K. McHugh.1984. "Awareness and Use of Forecasting Techniques in British Industry." Journal of Forecasting3 (January-March): 37-42.
63.
Tyebjee, Tyzoon T.1987. "Behavioral Biases in New Product Forecasting." International Journal of Forecasting3: 393-404.
64.
Umashankar, Sushila and Johannes Ledolter .1983. "Forecasting with Diagonal Multiple Time Series Models: An Extension of Univariate Models." Journal of Marketing Research20 (February): 58-63.
65.
Weinstein, David.1987. "Forecasting for Industrial Products." In The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright.New York; John Wiley.
66.
Winkler, Robert L.1984. "Combining Forecasts." In The Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Methods. Ed. S. Makridakis, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski , J. Newton, E. Parzen and R. Winkler.New York: John Wiley.
67.
Wittink, Dick R.1987. "Causal Market Share Models in Marketing: Neither Forecasting nor Understanding?" International Journal of Forecasting3: 445-448.
68.
Wright, David J.1988. "Decision Support Oriented Sales Forecasting Methods ." Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, this issue.
69.
—., G. Capon, R. Page, J. Quiroga, A.A. Taseen, and F. Tomasini.1986. "Evaluation of Forecasting Methods for Decision Support." International Journal of Forecasting2: 139-152.
70.
Yokum, J. Thomas, Jr. and Albert R. Wildt .1987. "Forecasting Sales Response for Multiple Time Horizons and Temporally Aggregated Data A Comparison of Constant and Stochastic Coefficient Models." International Journal of Forecasting3: 479-488.