The Weather Prophets: Science and Reputation in Victorian Meteorology

The inquiry into the workings of the department, published as a government document in 1866, gave very critical estimates; but a modern investigation, which applied a sample of FitzRoy's storm warnings to present-day standards using modern sea areas, concluded that FitzRoy's percentages compared favourably to late twentieth-century rates. See Report of a Committee appointed to consider certain questions relating to the Meteorological Department of the Board of Trade, Parliamentary Papers, 1866, 65.239 (hereafter Met. Department inquiry report), and Burton James , “Robert FitzRoy and the early history of the Meteorological Office”, The British journal for the history of science, xix (1986), 170–3. For an account of the reaction to FitzRoy's work, see Anderson Katharine , “Practical science: Meteorology and the forecasting controversy in mid-Victorian Britain”, Ph.D. dissertation, Northwestern University, 1994.

A speech to Liverpool Chamber of Commerce, quoted in The Times, 3 September 1866. For a biography of Robert FitzRoy, see Mellersh H. E. L. , FitzRoy of the Beagle (London, 1968).

FitzRoy Robert , Weather book (London, 1863), 171.

See, for instance, the letter from Beckett Edmund , The Times , 17 January 1883. Newspaper accounts constantly played with the comparison of government meteorology and astrological ‘prophecy’; for an instance, see The Times, 18 June 1864.

Punch, 17 May 1879, 221.

[ Scott R. H. ], “The weather and its prediction”, Quarterly review, cxlviii (1879), 489–500, p. 495.

The modern history of meteorology is sparse. Kutzbach Gisela , The thermal theory of cyclones: Meteorological thought in the nineteenth century (Boston, 1979), gives a history of theories of atmospheric change, and articles by Burton James , “Robert FitzRoy”, and Davis John , “Weather forecasting and the development of meteorological theory at the Paris Observatory, 1853–1878”, Annals of science, xli (1984), 359–82, provide good accounts of government forecasting in Britain and France. See also Burton James , “The history of the Meteorological Office to 1905”, Ph.D. dissertation, Open University, 1988, and Anderson, op. cit. (ref. 1). For this period in the United States, see Fleming James Rodger , Meteorology in America, 1800–1870 (Baltimore, 1990). More general works on meteorology include Khrgian A. , Meteorology: A historical survey [1959], transl. by Harden Ron (Jerusalem, 1970); Shaw William Napier , Manual of meteorology, i: Meteorology in history (Cambridge, 1926).

“R”, in “B” [ White W. H. ], A series of letters on weather changes (Glasgow, 1867), 221.

For recent discussions, see Cooter Roger Pumfrey Stephen , “Separate spheres and public places: Reflections on the history of science popularization and science in popular culture”, History of science, xxxii (1994), 237–67.

As examples of the extensive literature on controversies in early Victorian science, see Desmond Adrian , The politics of evolution: Morphology, medicine and reform in radical London (Chicago, 1989); Wallis R. , On the margins of science: The social construction of rejected knowledge , Sociology Review Monograph 27 (1979); Winter Alison , “Island of Mesmeria: The politics of Mesmerism in early Victorian Britain”, Ph.D. dissertation, Cambridge University, 1993.

Some relevant discussions of audience and place are: Morus Iwan , “Currents from the underworld: The technology of display in early Victorian England”, Isis, lxxxiv (1993), 50–69; idem, “Different experimental lives: Michael Faraday and William Sturgeon”, History of science, xxx (1992), 1–28; Morus Iwan Schaffer Simon Secord James A. , “Scientific London”, in London: World city , ed. by Fox Celia (New Haven, 1992), 129–42; Ophir Adi Shapin Steven , “The place of knowledge: A methodological survey”, Science in context, iv (1991), 3–21; Topham Jonathan , “Science and popular education in the 1830s: The role of the Bridgewater Treatises”, The British journal for the history of science, xxxv (1992), 397–430; Outram Dorinda , “New spaces in natural history”, in Cultures of natural history, ed. by Jardine N. Secord J. A. Spary E. (Cambridge, 1996), 249–65; and Secord Anne , “Science in the pub: Artisan botanists in early nineteenth-century Lancashire”, History of science, xxxii (1994), 269–315.

MacLeod Roy , “The support of Victorian science: The endowment of research movement, 1868–1900”, Minerva, ix (1971), 197–230; Turner Frank , “Public science in Britain, 1880–1919”, his, lxxi (1980), 589–608.

Schaffer Simon , “Astronomers mark time: Discipline and the personal equation”, Science in context, ii (1988), 101–31; Daston Lorraine Galison Peter , “Image of objectivity”, Representations, xl (1992), 81–128.

Met. Department inquiry report (ref. 1), 281.

For an account of these developments, see Anderson , op. cit. (ref. 1), 128–201.

There are brief discussions in Symons George James , “History of the English meteorological societies”, Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vii (1881), 66–107; Walker J. M. , “The meteorological societies of London”, Weather, xlviii (1993), 364–72; and idem, “Pen sketches of Presidents: Richard James Morrison”, Weather, xlix (1994), 71–72. See also the recent account of weather in the almanacs in Perkins Maureen , Visions of the future: Almanacs, time and cultural change 1775–1870 (Oxford, 1996).

For the history of astrology in Britain see the following: Capp Bernard , English almanacs 1500–1800: Astrology and the popular press (Ithaca, 1979); Curry Patrick , Prophecy and power: Astrology in early modern England (London, 1989) and Confusion of prophets: Victorian and Edwardian astrology (London, 1992); and Howe Ellic , Urania's children: The strange world of the astrologers (London, 1967).

Curry , Prophecy and power (ref. 17), 61.

Howe , op. cit. (ref. 17), 22.

E.g., Wilson James , A complete dictionary of astrology (London, 1819); Smith Robert Cross , A manual of astrology (London, 1828); Zadkiel [ Morrison R. J. ], The grammar of astrology (London, 1833); Simmonite , The prognostic astronomer (n. p., 1851); and Anon. [ Cooke Christopher ], A plea for Urania, being a popular sketch of celestial authority (London, 1854).

For a full account see Curry , Confusion of prophets (ref. 17).

Many requests for horoscopes with Airy's replies are preserved in his papers: Airy Papers, archives of the Royal Greenwich Observatory, Cambridge University Library (RGO). See for examples RGO 6/462/1, 6/468/1, 6/471/1, and 6/479/69.

Harrison J. Park , “Lunar influence on temperature”, Proceedings of the Royal Society, xiv (1865), 223–31. Harrison's work was communicated to the Society by Robert Main, of the Radcliffe Observatory, Oxford, formerly of the Royal Greenwich Observatory.

Ibid., 226.

Baker to White W. H. , 14 May 1839, Royal Meteorological Society mss. (uncatalogued correspondence of the London, British and Royal Meteorological Society, Meteorological Office archives, Bracknell).

For examples of further discussion of ambiguous phenomena, see Winter , “Island of Mesmeria” (ref. 10); Secord James A. , “Extraordinary experiment: Electricity and the creation of life in Victorian England”, in The uses of experiment: Studies in the natural sciences, ed. by Gooding D. Pinch T. Schaffer S. (Cambridge, 1989), 355–70.

See for instance, Day James , Meterology [sic] as applied to practical science (n. p., n. d. [1853–54]); Biological review: A repertory of the science of life devoted to the elucidation of the mental, mesmeric and occult philosophy. Sept 1858-Jan 1859. For discussions of early Victorian scientific entertainment, see Altick Richard , Shows of London (Cambridge, Mass., 1978); Morus , “Currents from the underworld” (ref. 11); and Morus Schaffer Secord , op. cit. (ref. 11).

This provision was not repealed until 1989. Frederick Copestick of Bath, convicted in 1852, was an example of Victorian prosecution of astrologers. See Howe , Urania's children (ref. 17), 37–38, and Curry , Confusion of prophets (ref. 17), 13–15, 66. Another prosecution, of J. Bradshaw in 1843, was discussed in Zadkiel's almanac for 1844 and for 1845.

Simmonite W. J. , The meteorologist … for 1851 (London, 1850). In fact, Simmonite claimed that he did no more than forward horary requests to an astrologer in London, one Mercurius Herschel, F.R.S. In addition to his almanac, William Joseph Simmonite of Sheffield (fl. 1840–54) published several works on astrology, meteorology and medical botany.

See Curry , Confusion of prophets (ref. 17), 60, 107, 111. See also Zadkiel's own estimates in his Almanac: 22,000 in 1849; 32,000 in 1851; 44,000 in 1861; 58,000 in 1864; and 70,000 in 1870 (Herald of astrology and Zadkiel's almanac, passim). After A. J. Pearce took over in 1870, sales increased further (according to the new editor), to 150,000 copies. Accurate figures are hard to obtain, since critics cited alarmist figures and astrologers themselves may have exaggerated their circulation. Curry suggests Raphael's almanac was selling 100,000 per issue (i.e. yearly) in the early Victorian period, and approached 200,000 by the end of the century. For the almanac tradition in general, see Harris Michael , “Astrology, almanacs and bookseller”, Publishing history, viii (1980), 92–109, and Perkins, op. cit. (ref. 16).

E.g. Orion's prophetic guide and weather almanac (Orion was an astrologer based in Thorney, near Peterborough); The British weather almanac and rural diary …on the principle of solar lunar and planetary reflection; meteorological almanac and monthly weather ephemeris, by George Shepherd, C.E., May 1866 to April 1868; the Lunar almanac of Henry Doxat; Bushell's weather almanac; and Whistlecraft's weather almanac and annual register of useful and curious information. The first two were astro-meteorological examples; the second two were lunarists.

Put out by Thomas de la Rue & Co., it included articles by well-known scientific figures like Warren de la Rue. There was also Gutch's literary and scientific register and almanack, by Gutch J. W. G. , a compendium of scientific information under the patronage of Prince Albert (1852 was its eleventh year). This may be the same Gutch who became secretary in the last months of the London Meteorological Society, in 1842–43.

For circulation estimates, see Sheets-Pyenson Susan , “Low scientific culture in London and Paris, 1820–1875”, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, 1976, 74. Other scientific periodicals, which gave less space to astro-meteorologists, have circulations estimated at about a tenth of the English mechanic.

See also Baker to White , 1 April 1839 and 25 May 1839, Royal Meteorological Society mss.

Journal of astronomic meteorology and record of the science and phenomena of the weather , no. 1 (April 1862), 1. The Journal and associated “Copernican Society” appear to be an offshoot of the Astro-Meteorological Society, discussed later in this section.

For more information on Pearce, see Curry , Confusion of prophets (ref. 17), 109–21.

Morrison to White , 25 February 1839, Royal Meteorological Society mss.

Gardener's gazette, 21 Dec 1839, 834.

Director of Bishops Observatory in Regent's Park and Superintendent of the Nautical almanac from 1853 to 1891. Hind published his own weather almanac in 1839–41. See the Dictionary of national biography (Supplement), xxii, 849–50.

Hind J. R. to White W. H. , 18 May 1841, Royal Meteorological Society mss.

Howard Luke , On the modification of clouds (London, 1802), The climate of London (London, 1833), A cycle of 18 years (London, 1842), Barometrographica: Twenty years' variation (London, 1847), Papers on meteorology (London, 1854). On Howard, see Allen William , Life of Luke Howard (London, 1847); and Scott Douglas (ed.), Luke Howard: His correspondence with Goethe and his Continental journey of 1816 (York, 1976).

Loudon J. C. , Encyclopedia of gardening, comprising the theory and practice of horticulture, 3rd edn (London, 1835; 1st edn, 1822), 511.

“Herschel”, Table of the weather, 1815. From the John Johnson Collection, Almanacs, Box 1, Bodleian Library.

Herschel John , “The weather, and weather prophets”, Good words, v (1864), 57–64, p. 59.

FitzRoy to Airy, 24 Dec 1862, RGO 6/703/27–28; 15 Jan 1863, RGO 6/703/25–26; 7 May 1863, RGO 6/703/31–32; 11 June 1863, RGO 6/703/33–34; FitzRoy to Herschel , 21 and 25 April 1862, J. F. W. Herschel papers, Royal Society of London, HS 7 259–60.

FitzRoy , Weather book (ref. 3), 244–56.

Ibid., 453.

Ibid. , 97; see also the most continuous description of FitzRoy's ideas about electricity in “Appendix O”, ibid., 451–8.

The atmospheric almanac, 1839–41.

Cooke Christopher , Curiosities of occult literature (London, 1863). The annotated copy of Curiosities referred to here is held at the Meteorological Office Library, Bracknell. The date of the annotations is unknown, but there are references to Morrison's death in 1879. There is also a differently annotated copy at the British Library. See also the accounts of Morrison/Zadkiel in Howe, op. cit. (ref. 17), 33–47; Curry , Confusion of prophets (ref. 17), 61–108.

A standard title page of the publication read: “Zadkiel's Almanac for 1857 Being the 21st of Her Majesty's Reign, containing Predictions of the Weather, Voice of the Stars, Numerous Useful Tables, a Hieroglyphic” and engraving followed by a prediction ‘headline’: “National Loss and Humiliation.”.

His inventions, according to Cooke, included a bell buoy, and improvements to electrical telegraph transmission and to the screw propeller for steam vessels. The telescope and mining projects are described by Cooke in Curiosities (ref. 50). Some details of his magnetic electrometer can be found in the Royal Meteorological Society mss., Morrison-White correspondence, 1837–38.

Curry , Confusion of prophets (ref. 17), 64.

Herald of astrology for 1832, 40. The others were Genethliacal Astrology, or nativities, and Horary Astrology, or answers to particular questions.

Letter dated Jan 1861, printed by Cooke, Curiosities (ref. 50), 271.

See the Royal Meteorological Society mss., 1837–1843; for White's connections to the Botanical Society, see Allen David E. , The botanists: A history of the Botanical Society of the British Isles (Winchester, 1986). White should not be confused with Walter H. White, who served as secretary to the Royal Society from 1844 to 1884.

Grosvenor's interests in astrology are unclear, but he agreed some years later at Morrison's request to present a petition to the House of Commons calling for amendments to the Vagrants Act which would end the persecution of astrologers. See Howe , op. cit. (ref. 17), 38.

The instrument-maker Robert Wood sold the society an extravagant and flawed set of instruments, and produced a complicated and equally expensive frontspiece to the one volume of Transactions that the society managed to publish. On the society, see Symons , op. cit. (ref. 16), and Walker, op. cit. (ref. 16).

The full titles are: Anatomy of the seasons, weather guide book and companion to the Almanac (London, 1834) and Meteorology considered in its connexion with astronomy, climate and geographical distribution of animals and plants equally with the seasons and changes of the weather (London, 1836).

See Morrison to White , 17 Dec 1836; and Maverly J. H. to White , 4 July 1838, Royal Meteorological Society mss.

In those works written during the years that the LMS was dormant. See Anatomy (ref. 59), 86–88; and Meteorology (ref. 59), iii, 19–23.

Whityer to White , July 1837, Royal Meteorological Society mss.

Murphy's Weather almanac was published from 1837 to 1841.

Maverly to White , 4 July 1838, Royal Meteorological Society mss. Murphy charged one shilling and sixpence for his almanac. Weather almanacs in this period usually cost one shilling: Zadkiel began charging two shillings for his Herald of astrology in 1830 but had dropped to one shilling by 1835 and then to sixpence in 1847.

Cruikshank George , “Almaniac day, or a rush for the Murphies”, Comic almanack, 1839, 3–4.

Baker to White , 14 May 1839, Royal Meteorological Society mss.

White was chairman of the society, J. M. Cavalier the honorary secretary.

Symons , op. cit. (ref. 16), 88–89.

Blomefield Leonard (formerly Leonard Jenyns), a well-connected clergyman-naturalist and a keen meteorologist, suspiciously declined to join the 1850 incarnation of the society, and in his memoirs quipped that his “forecast” had been wrong, a comment that implies he knew of the dubious earlier history of the society. Blomefield Leonard , Chapters in my life (Bath, 1889), 94.

For an account of these developments, see Walker , op. cit. (ref. 16).

For a related discussion of character and public life, see Collini Stefan , Public moralists: Political thought and intellectual life in Britain, 1850–1930 (Cambridge, 1991), esp. pp. 91–121. One interesting description of the fortunes of scientific and personal reputation is Hays J. , “Rise and fall of Dionysius Lardner”, Annals of science, xxxviii (1981), 527–42.

Gardener's gazette , 4 Jan 1840, 11. White examined his invention of a Portable Magnetic Electrometer, designed to measure the electro-magnetism of the atmosphere, and encouraged him to publish his meteorological almanac. White even found him a London publisher (Whitaker & Co.), a service he provided in at least one other similar case, that of Frances Barbara Burton who published Thoughts on physical astronomy (London, 1840). See Royal Meteorological Society mss., 1837–38.

See Middleton W. E. K. , The history of the barometer (Baltimore, 1964).

FitzRoy , Weather book (ref. 3), 1.

See the Society's journal, edited by White William : The journal of astronomic meteorology and record of the science and phenomena of the weather (1862). The society lasted some sixteen months.

See Saxby S. M. in the Nautical magazine, xxix, issue of Jan 1860, 21–23, and xxx, issue of May 1861, 263; for his views in general see his Foretelling the weather (London, 1864), and in a retitled second edition, Saxby's weather system (London, 1867).

Saxby to Airy, 28 Dec 1860, RGO 6/700, and Saxby, op. cit. (ref. 76, 1864), 14.

Minutes of Lloyds Committee, 23 Jan 1861, archives of Lloyds of London.

Nautical magazine, xxxi, issue of Dec 1861, 664.

Cooke , Curiosities (ref. 50), 233.

Belcher to secretary of the RMS, 1 August 1874, Royal Meteorological Society mss.

See, for instance, The Times, 2 May 1834.

Curry has compiled a detailed account of this trial based on newspaper reports; see his Confusion of prophets (ref. 17), 85–108. Zadkiel also published a full description in his Almanac for 1864, 62–79.

Saturday review, 4 July 1863, quoted in Zadkiel's almanac … for 1864, 77–78.

FitzRoy to Herschel , 25 Apr 1862, 15 Jan 1863, 16 Mar 1863, Herschel J. F. W. papers, Royal Society, HS 7: 260, 262, 264. See also the FitzRoy–Airy correspondence cited in ref. 45.

Wynter Andrew , “Clerk of the weather”, in Subtle brains and lissome fingers, being some of the chisel marks of our industrial and scientific progress (London, 1863), 201.

For a related discussion of pseudonymity, see Secord James A. , “Introduction”, in Chambers Robert , Vestiges of the natural history of creation and other evolutionary writings (Chicago, 1994), pp. ix–xlvii.

White typically listed his correspondents of the week to acknowledge receipt of their communication at the end of his column; he sometimes listed both Zadkiel and Morrison. He did not identify Zadkiel as Morrison in his discussion or charts. See Gardener's gazette , 1839–42, passim.

Anderson Olivia , Suicide in Victorian and Edwardian England (Oxford, 1987); Oppenheim Janet , ‘Shattered nerves’: Patients, doctors and depression in Victorian England (Oxford, 1991).

[ Glaisher James ], “Admiral FitzRoy”, Athenaeum, i, issue of 6 May 1865, 622.

[ Liefchild John ], “Weather forecasts and storm warnings”, Edinburgh review, lxxiv (1866), 51–85, p. 83. Liefchild was a regular contributor on scientific subjects and the author of several works on popular science. In the light of this paper's subject, however, the anonymity of the article is an important feature to recall: Anonymous authors spoke as “the Edinburgh Review“.

Saxby , Foretelling the weather (ref. 76), 8.

For a general account, see Hufbauer Karl , Exploring the Sun: Solar science since Galileo (Baltimore, 1991); and Meadows A. J. , Science and controversy: A biography of Sir Norman Lockyer (Cambridge, Mass., 1972).

Stewart B. Lockyer N. , “The Sun as a type of the material universe”, MacMillan's magazine, xviii (1868), 246–52 and 319–27, p. 256.

Meadows , op. cit. (ref. 93); Mary T. Lockyer Winifred , Life and work of Sir Norman Lockyer (London, 1928).

“Address to the Public”, Record of the Astro-Meteorological Society, i (1861), 3. For examples of the influence of spectroscopy, see Cooke Christopher , Facts and failures (London, 1867), 7–8; Pearce A. J. , The weather guide book (London, 1864), pp. iii–v, 11, 31.

“Meteorology of the future”, Nature, vii, issue of 12 Dec 1872, 98.

Gentleman's magazine, cxlviii (1879), 491.

Proctor Richard , “Weather and the Sun”, Popular science monthly, iii (1873), 479–93, p. 493.

Proctor Richard , “Astrology”, Belgravia, viii (1876), 4–20 and 145–62, p. 10. See Meadows , op. cit. (ref. 93), for an account of the generally acrimonious relations between Proctor and Lockyer.

See Schabas Margaret , A world ruled by number: W. S. Jevons and the rise of mathematical economics (Princeton, 1990).

Recently it has attracted more interest: See Mirowksi Philip , “Macroeconomic instability and ‘natural’ processes in early neoclassical economics”, Journal of economic history, xliv (1984), 345–54, and Peart Sandra J. , “Sunspots and expectations: W. S. Jevons' theory of economic fluctuations”, Journal of the history of economic thought, xiii (1991), 243–65.

See Jevons W. S. , Investigations in currency and finance (New York, 1964; 1st pub. 1884).

See the letter to The Times, 22 Dec 1866, published in Black R. Collison Konekamp Rosamond (eds), Papers and correspondence of William Stanley Jevons (7 vols, London, 1972–81), iii, 144.

Jevons , Investigations (ref. 103), p. xxxiii.

Hufbauer , Exploring the Sun (ref. 93), 38–40.

Jevons , Investigations (ref. 103), 235.

From a 17 June 1857 letter to his sister Henrietta advising her against taking up meteorology, “a most troublesome extensive, and to most uninteresting subject”. Black Konekamp (eds), Papers and correspondence of Jevons (ref. 104), ii, 291–2.

Ibid., v, 92.

Jevons , Investigations (ref. 103), 205.

Ibid., p. xxiv.

E.g., Porter Theodore , The rise of statistical thinking 1820–1900 (Princeton, 1986) and Trust in numbers (Princeton, 1996); Gooday Graeme , “Precision measurement and the genesis of physics teaching laboratories in Victorian Britain”, The British journal for the history of science, xxiii (1990), 25–51.

Met. Department inquiry report (ref. 1), 259.

The others were at Greenwich, Falmouth, Valencia, Aberdeen, Armagh, Glasgow and Stonyhurst.

Zadkiel's almanac for 1868 (1867), 74. Zadkiel cited similar comments earlier about astrology's opponents: “Like women and like priests, they have none of the courage that is engendered by full, free and fair research; but, cowards that they are, they think to defeat those they oppose by throwing dust in the eyes of the public.” Zadkiel's almanac for 1865 (1864), 77.

Nautical magazine, xxxi, issue of July 1862, 365.

Oliver J. Westwood , Sunspottery (London, 1883), 27.

This position is the counterpart to the moralization of objectivity described by Daston and Galison in “Image of objectivity” (ref. 13).

Oliver , Sunspottery (ref. 117), 26.

Ibid., 10.