Household Migration Plans

Abstract

Migration is the principal component of demographic change in most states and local areas. Consequently, the methods used to estimate and project migration deserve special attention. Conventional estimation and projection procedures focus on individual movement and the number of moves that have already oc curred. Recent research on migrant behavior strongly suggests, however, that the appropriate unit of analysis in the migration decision is the household, not the individual, and that greater attention should be devoted to the study of intentions to migrate, rather than to the fact of migration. This paper presents a multivariate probit model of migrant behavior focusing on household migration plans. Probit analysis permits a more rigorous specification of the relation of demographic, economic, and social factors to the individual migration decision. Empirical findings are presented for an application of the model to a 1976 survey of 3,610 metropolitan Delaware households. Problems and procedures are also discussed surrounding the construction of probit models incorporating aggregate informa tion, an approach to model building considered potentially useful for planning and policy research.

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