Since the 1970s, catalogs of protest events have been at the heart of research on social movements. To measure how protest changes over time or varies across space, sociologists usually count the frequency of events, as either the dependent variable or a key independent variable. An alternative is to count the number of participants in protest. This article investigates demonstrations, strikes, and riots. Their size distributions manifest enormous variation. Most events are small, but a few large events contribute the majority of protesters. When events are aggregated by year or by city, the correlation between total participation and event frequency is low or modest. The choice of how to quantify protest is therefore vital; findings from one measure are unlikely to apply to another. The fact that the bulk of participation comes from large events has positive implications for the compilation of event catalogs. Rather than worrying about the underreporting of small events, concentrate on recording large ones accurately.
AmentaEdwinCarenNealChiarelloElizabethSuYang. 2010. “The Political Consequences of Social Movements.” Annual Review of Sociology36:287–307.
2.
BarrancoJoséWislerDominique. 1999. “Validity and Systematicity of Newspaper Data in Event Analysis.” European Sociological Review15:301–22.
3.
BiggsMichael. 2005a. “Dying without Killing: Self-immolations, 1963-2002.” Pp. 173–208 in Making Sense of Suicide Missions, edited by GambettaDiego. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
4.
BiggsMichael. 2005b. “Strikes as Forest Fires: Chicago and Paris in the Late 19th Century.” American Journal of Sociology110:1684–14.
5.
BiggsMichael. 2013. “How Repertoires Evolve: The Diffusion of Suicide Protest in the Twentieth Century.” Mobilization18:407–28.
6.
BiggsMichael. 2015. “Has Protest Increased since the 1970s? How a Survey Question Can Construct a Spurious Trend.” British Journal of Sociology66:141–62.
BudrosArt. 2011. “Explaining the First Emancipation: Social Movements and Abolition in the U.S. North, 1776-1804.” Mobilization16:439–54.
9.
CarterGregg Lee. 1986. “The 1960s Black Riots Revisited: City Level Explanations of Their Severity.” Sociological Inquiry56:210–28.
10.
ChecchiDanieleVisserJelle. 2005. “Pattern Persistence in European Trade Union Density: A Longitudinal Analysis 1950-1996.” European Sociological Review21:1–21.
11.
Choi-FitzpatrickAustinJuskauskasTautvydas. 2015. “Up in the Air: Applying the Jacobs Crowd Formula to Drone Imagery.” Procedia Engineering107:273–81.
12.
ClausetAaronShaliziCosma RohillaNewmanM. E. J.. 2009. “Power-law Distributions in Empirical Data.” SIAM Review51:661–703.
13.
ClausetAaronWiegelFrederik W.. 2010. “A Generalized Aggregation-Disintegration Model for the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Attacks.” Journal of Conflict Resolution54:179–97.
14.
ClausetAaronYoungMaxwellGleditschKristian Skrede. 2007. “On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events.” Journal of Conflict Resolution51:1–31.
15.
CrovellaMark E.2001. “Performance Evaluation with Heavy Tailed Distributions.” Pp. 1–10 in Job Scheduling Strategies for Parallel Processing: 7th International Workshop, edited by FeitelsonDror G.RudolphLarry. Berlin, Germany: Springer Verlag.
16.
DeNardoJames. 1985. Power in Numbers: The Political Strategy of Protest and Rebellion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
17.
EarlJenniferMartinAndrewMcCarthyJohn D.SouleSarah A.. 2004. “The Use of Newspaper Data in the Study of Collective Action.” Annual Review of Sociology30:65–80.
18.
FeitelsonDror G.2006. “Metrics for Mass-count Disparity.” Pp. 61–68 in Proceedings of the 14th IEEE International Symposium on Modeling, Analysis, and Simulation of Computer and Telecommunication Systems (MASCOTS ’06). Washington, DC: IEEE Computer Society.
19.
FogelsonRobert M.1971. Violence as Protest: A Study of Riots and Ghettos. New York: Doubleday.
FranzosiRoberto. 1987. “The Press as a Source of Socio-historical Data: Issues in the Methodology of Data Collection from Newspapers.” Historical Methods20:5–15.
22.
FranzosiRoberto. 1989. “One Hundred Years of Strike Statistics: Methodological and Theoretical Issues in Quantitative Strike Research.” Industrial and Labor Relations Review42:348–62.
23.
HainesMichael R. and Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. 2010. Historical, Demographic, Economic, and Social Data: The United States, 1790–2002. ICPSR 02896-v3 (computer file). Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.
24.
HibbsDouglas A.1973. Mass Political Violence: A Cross-National Causal Analysis. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
25.
HoskingJ. R. M.1990. “L-moments: Analysis and Estimation of Distributions Using Linear Combinations of Order Statistics.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B52:105–24.
26.
InclánMaría. 2009. “Sliding Doors of Opportunity: Zapatistas and Their Cycle of Protest.” Mobilization14:85–106.
27.
JacobsDavidKentStephanie L.. 2007. “The Determinants of Executions since 1951: How Politics, Protests, Public Opinion, and Social Divisions Shape Capital Punishment.” Social Problems54:297–318.
28.
JenkinsJ. CraigJacobsDavidAgnoneJon. 2003. “Political Opportunities and African-American Protest, 1948–1997.” American Journal of Sociology109:277–303.
29.
JohnsonNeil F.SpagatMikeRestrepoJorge A.BecerraOscarBohorquezJuan CamiloSuarezNicolasRestrepoElvira MariaZaramaRoberto. 2006. “Universal Patterns Underlying Ongoing Wars and Terrorism.” Retrieved October 27, 2010 (http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/physics/0605035).
30.
KoopmansRuud. 1995. Democracy from Below: New Social Movements and the Political System in West Germany. Boulder, CO: Westview.
31.
KriesiHanspeterKoopmansRuudDyvendakJan WillemGiugniMarco G.. 1995. New Social Movements in Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
32.
LohmannSusanne. 1994. “The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989–91.” World Politics47:42–101.
33.
ManeyGregory M.OliverPamela E.. 2001. “Finding Collective Events: Sources, Searches, Timing.” Sociological Methods and Research30:131–69.
34.
MannLeon. 1974. “Counting the Crowd: Effects of Editorial Policy on Estimates.” Journalism Quarterly51:278–85.
35.
MargettsHelenJohnPeterHaleScottYasseriTaha. 2016. Political Turbulence: How Social Media Shape Collective Action. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
36.
McAdamDoug. 1982. Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
37.
McAdamDougMcCarthyJohn D.OlzakSusanSouleSarah A.. n.d. Dynamics of Collective Action in the United States (computer file). Retrieved July 1, 2012 (http:www.stanford.edu/group/collectiveaction/).
38.
McAdamDougSuYang. 2002. “The War at Home: Antiwar Protests and Congressional Voting, 1965 to 1973.” American Sociological Review67:696–721.
39.
McCarthyJohn D.McPhailClarkSmithJackie. 1996. “Images of Protest: Dimensions of Selection Bias in Media Coverage of Washington Demonstrations, 1982 and 1991.” American Sociological Review61:478–99.
40.
McCarthyJohn D.McPhailClarkSmithJackieCrishockLouis J.. 1998. “Electronic and Print Media Representations of Washington D.C. Demonstrations, 1982 and 1991: A Demography of Description Bias.” Pp. 113–30 in Acts of Dissent: New Developments in the Study of Protest, edited by RuchtDieterKoopmansRuudNeidhardtFriedhelm. Berlin, Germany: Edition Sigma.
41.
McCarthyJohn D.TitarenkoLarissaMcPhailClarkRafailPatrick S.AugustynBoguslaw. 2008. “Assessing Stability in the Patterns of Selection Bias in Newspaper Coverage of Protest during the Transition from Communism in Belarus.” Mobilization13:127–46.
42.
McPhailClarkMcCarthyJohn. 2004. “Who Counts and How: Estimating the Size of Protests.” Contexts3:12–18.
43.
MorganWilliam R.ClarkTerry Nichols. 1973. “The Causes of Racial Disorders: A Grievance-level Explanation.” American Sociological Review38:611–24.
44.
MyersDaniel J.2010. “Violent Protest and Heterogeneous Diffusion Processes: The Spread of U.S. Racial Rioting from 1964 to 1971.” Mobilization15:289–321.
45.
MyersDaniel J.CanigliaBeth Schaefer. 2004. “All the Rioting That’s Fit to Print: Selection Effects in National Newspaper Coverage of Civil Disorders, 1968–1969.” American Sociological Review69:519–43.
46.
OberschallAnthony R.1994. “Rational Choice in Collective Protests.” Rationality and Society6:79–100.
47.
OliverPamela E.ManeyGregory. 2000. “Political Processes and Local Newspaper Coverage of Protest Events: From Selection Bias to Triadic Interactions.” American Journal of Sociology106:463–505.
48.
OliverPamela E.MyersDaniel J.. 1999. “How Events Enter the Public Sphere: Conflict, Location, and Sponsorship in Local Newspaper Coverage of Public Events.” American Journal of Sociology105:38–87.
49.
OliverPamela E.MyersDaniel J.. 2003. “The Coevolution of Social Movements.” Mobilization8:1–24.
50.
OlzakSusan. 1989. “Analysis of Events in the Study of Collective Action.” Annual Review of Sociology15:119–41.
51.
OlzakSusan. 1992. The Dynamics of Ethnic Competition and Conflict. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
52.
OppKarl-Dieter. 2009. Theories of Political Protest and Social Movements: A Multidisciplinary Introduction, Critique, and Synthesis. Abingdon, UK: Routledge.
53.
OrtizDavid G.MyersDaniel J.WallsEugene N.DiazMaria-Elena D.. 2005. “Where Do We Stand with Newspaper Data?” Mobilization10:397–419.
54.
PopovicSrdjaMillerMatthew. 2015. Blueprint for Revolution: How to Use Rice Pudding, Lego Men, and Other Non-violent Techniques to Galvanise Communities, Overthrow Dictators, or Simply Change the World. Melbourne, Australia: Scribe.
55.
PrzeworskiAdam. 2009. “Conquered or Granted? A History of Suffrage Extensions.” British Journal of Political Science39:291–321.
56.
ResnickSidney I.2010. Heavy-tail Phenomena: Probabilistic and Statistical Modeling. New York: Springer.
57.
RichardsonLewis F.1948. “Variation of the Frequency of Fatal Quarrels with Magnitude.” Journal of the American Statistical Association43:523–46.
58.
RosenfeldJake. 2006. “Desperate Measures: Strikes and Wages in Post-Accord America.” Social Forces85:235–65.
59.
RozenfeldHernán D.RybskiDiegoGabaixXavierMakseHernán A.. 2011. “The Area and Population of Cities: New Insights from a Different Perspective on Cities.” American Economic Review101:2205–25.
60.
RuchtDieterNeidhardtFriedhelm. 1998. “Methodological Issues in Collecting Protest Event Data: Units of Analysis, Sources and Sampling, Coding Problems.” Pp. 65–89 in Acts of Dissent: New Developments in the Study of Protest, edited by RuchtDieterKoopmansRuudNeidhardtFriedhelm. Berlin, Germany: Edition Sigma.
61.
RummelRudolph J.1963. “Dimensions of Conflict Behavior within and between Nations.” General Systems Yearbook8:1–50.
62.
SeguinCharles. 2016. “Cascades of Coverage: Dynamics of Media Attention to Social Movement Organizations.” Social Forces94:997–1020.
63.
ShorterEdwardTillyCharles. 1974. Strikes in France, 1830-1968. New York: Cambridge University Press.
64.
SouleSarah A.EarlJennifer. 2005. “A Movement Society Evaluated: Collective Protest in the United States.” Mobilization10:345–64.
65.
SpielmansJohn V.1944. “Strike Profiles.” Journal of Political Economy52:319–39.
66.
TarrowSidney. 1989. Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965–1975. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press.
67.
TarrowSydney. 2011. Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action, and Politics. 3rd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.
68.
TillyCharles. 1978. From Mobilization to Revolution. New York: McGraw-Hill.
69.
TillyCharles. 1995. Popular Contention in Great Britain, 1758–1834. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
70.
TillyCharlesRuleJames B.. 1965. Measuring Political Upheaval. Princeton, NJ: Centre of International Studies, Princeton University.
71.
TitarenkoLarissaMcCarthyJohn D.McPhailClarkAugustynBoguslaw. 2001. “The Interaction of State Repression, Protest Form and Protest Sponsor Strength during the Transition from Communism in Minsk, Belarus, 1990–1995.” Mobilization6:129–50.
72.
U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1960. Census of Population, 1960, Vol. 1, Characteristics of the Population, parts 2-52. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
73.
VirkarYogeshClausetAaron. 2014. “Power-law Distributions in Binned Empirical Data.” Annals of Applied Statistics8:89–119.
74.
YipPaul S. F.WatsonRayChanK. S.LauEric H. Y.ChenFengXuYingXiLiqunCheungDerek Y. T.IpBrian Y. T.LiuDanping. 2010. “Estimation of the Number of People in a Demonstration.” Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics52:17–26.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
