This article considers five methodological challenges in studying rare events such as school shootings. Drawing on the literature on causal analysis in macro-historical and other small-N research, it outlines strategies for studying school shootings using qualitative case studies and illustrates these strategies using data from case studies of two rampage school shootings: Heath High School in West Paducah, Kentucky, and Westside Middle School outside Jonesboro, Arkansas. Strengths and limitations are discussed as well as lessons for studying rare events.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Abbott, Andrew
. 1992. “From Causes to Events: Notes on Narrative Positivism.”Sociological Methods and Research20:428-455.
2.
Abell, Peter
. 1987. The Syntax of Social Life: The Theory and Method of Comparative Narratives. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
3.
Abell, Peter
. 2001. “Causality and Low-Frequency Complex Events: The Role of Comparative Narratives.”Sociological Methods and Research30(1):57-80.
4.
Anderson, Mark
, Joanne Kaufman, Thomas R. Simon, Lisa Barrios, Len Paulozzi, George Ryan, Rodney Hammond, William Modzeleski, Thomas Feucht, Lloyd Potter, and the School Associated Violent Deaths Study Group. 2001. “School Associated Violent Deaths in the United States, 1994-1999.”Journal of the American Medical Association286(21):2695-2702.
5.
Benedict, M. L.1998. “A New Look at the Impeachment of Andrew Johnson.”Political Science Quarterly113(3):493-511.
6.
Bergesen, Albert
and Max Herman. 1998. “Immigration, Race and Riot: The 1992 Los Angeles Uprising.”American Sociological Review63(1):39-54.
7.
Campbell, Donald T.1975. “`Degrees of Freedom' and the Case Study.”Comparative Political Studies8:178-193.
8.
Coleman, James S.1961. The Adolescent Society: The Social Life of the Teenager and Its Impact on Education. New York: Free Press.
9.
Cook, Philip J.
, Mark H. Moore, and Anthony A. Braga. 2001. “Gun Control.” In Crime: Public Policies for Crime Control. 2nd ed., edited by James Q. Wilson and Joan Petersilia. San Francisco: Institute for Contemporary Studies Press.
10.
Corsaro, William A.
and David R. Heise. 1990. “Event Structure Models From Ethnographic Data.”Sociological Methodology20:1-57.
11.
Crotty, William S.1998. “Presidential Assassinations.”Society35(2):99-107.
12.
DeJong, William
, Joel C. Epstein, and Thomas E. Hart. 2002. “Bad Things Happen in Good Communities: The Rampage Shooting in Edinborough, Pennsylvania, and Its Aftermath.” In National Research Council and Institute of Medicine, Deadly Lessons: Understanding Lethal School Violence. Case Studies of School Violence Committee, edited by Mark H. Moore, Carol V. Petrie, Anthony A. Braga, and Brenda L. McLaughlin. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
13.
Dion, Douglas
. 1998. “Evidence and Inference in the Comparative Case Study.”Comparative Politics30:127-146.
14.
Dunn, Jennifer
and Martin Frost. 2000. “Final Report: Bi-partisan Working Group on Youth Violence.”106th Congress, February.
15.
Eckstein, Harry
. 1975. “Case Studies and Theory in Political Science.” Pp. 79-138 in Handbook of Political Science, vol. 7, edited by Fred Greenstein and Newlson W. Polsby. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
16.
Erikson, Erik
. 1968. Identity, Youth, and Crisis. New York: Norton.
17.
Fox, Cybelle
, Wendy Roth, and Katherine Newman. 2002. “A Deadly Partnership: Lethal Violence in an Arkansas Middle School.” In National Research Council and Institute of Medicine, Deadly Lessons: Understanding Lethal School Violence. Case Studies of School Violence Committee, edited by Mark H. Moore, Carol V. Petrie, Anthony A. Braga, and Brenda L. McLaughlin. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
18.
Fox, James Alan
and Jack Levin. 1994. Overkill: Mass Murder and Serial Killing Exposed. New York: Plenum.
19.
Fox, James Alan
and Jack Levin. 1998. “Multiple Homicide: Patterns of Serial and Mass Murder.” In Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, vol. 23, edited by Michael Tonry. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
20.
Fullilove, Mindy Thomson
, Gina Arias, Moises Nunez, Ericka Phillips, Peter McFarlane, Rodrick Wallace, and Robert E. Fullilove III. 2002. “What Did Ian Tell God? School Violence in East New York.” In National Research Council and Institute of Medicine, Deadly Lessons: Understanding Lethal School Violence. Case Studies of School Violence Committee, edited by Mark H. Moore, Carol V. Petrie, Anthony A. Braga, and Brenda L. McLaughlin. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
21.
Geddes, Barbara
. 1990. “How the Cases You Choose Affect the Answers You Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics.” Pp. 131-150 in Political Analysis, vol. 2., edited by James A. Stimson. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
22.
Gembrowski, Susan. 2001. "Life Goes On in a Troubled World; Well-Adjusted Teens Thrive Despite Violent Times." San Diego Union-Tribune, November 11, p. A-1. ABC News polls conducted March 11, 2001 and April 25, 1999. Retrieved April 3, 2001, from http://abcnews.go.com/sections/GMA/GoodMorningAmerica/GMA_School_Violence_POLL.html
23.
George, Alexander L.1979. “Case Studies and Theory Development: The Method of Structured, Focused Comparison.” Pp. 43-68 in Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy, edited by P. G. Lauren. New York: Free Press.
24.
George, Alexander L.
and Timothy J. McKeown. 1985. “Case Studies and Theories of Organizational Decision Making.”Advances in Information Processing in Organizations2:21-58.
25.
Goldstone, Jack A.1997. “Methodological Issues in Comparative Macrosociology.”Comparative Social Research16:107-120.
26.
Griffin, Larry J.1993. “Narrative, Event Structure, and Explanation in Historical Sociology.”American Journal of Sociology98:1094-1133.
27.
Hagan, John
, Paul Hirschfield, and Carla Shedd. 2002. “Shooting at Tilden High: Causes and Consequences.” In National Research Council and Institute of Medicine, Deadly Lessons: Understanding Lethal School Violence. Case Studies of School Violence Committee, edited by Mark H. Moore, Carol V. Petrie, Anthony A. Braga, and Brenda L. McLaughlin. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
28.
Harding, David
, Jal Mehta, and Katherine Newman. 2002. “No Exit: Mental Illness, Marginality, and School Violence in West Paducah, Kentucky.” In National Research Council and Institute of Medicine, Deadly Lessons: Understanding Lethal School Violence. Case Studies of School Violence Committee, edited by Mark H. Moore, Carol V. Petrie, Anthony A. Braga, and Brenda L. McLaughlin. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
29.
Hutson, H. R.
, D. Anglin, J. Yarbrough, K. Hardaway, M. Russell, J. Strote, M. Cantor, and B. Blum. 1998. “Suicide by Cop.”Anals of Emergency Medicine32(6):665-669.
30.
Holden, Robert T.1986. “The Contagiousness of Aircraft Hijacking.”American Journal of Sociology91(4):874-904.
31.
Isaac, Larry W.
, Debra A. Street, and Stan J. Knapp. 1994. “Analyzing Contingency With Formal Methods: The Case of the `Relief Explosion' and 1968.”Sociological Methods and Research23(1):114-141.
32.
Kachur, S. Patrick
, Gail M. Stennies, Kenneth E. Powell, William Modzelski, Ronald Stephens, Rosemary Murphy, Marcie-Jo Kresnow, David Sleet, and Richard Lowry. 1996. “School-Associated Violent Deaths in the United States, 1992 to 1994.”Journal of the American Medical Association275(22):1729-1733.
33.
King, Gary
, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba. 1994. Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
34.
King, Gary
and Langche Zeng. 2001. “Explaining Rare Events in International Relations.”International Organization55(3):693-715.
35.
Kuhn, Thomas S.1962. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
36.
Lacy, Michael G.1997. “Efficiently Studying Rare Events: Case-Control Methods for Sociologists.”Sociological Perspectives40(1):129-154.
37.
Levin, Jack
and James Alan Fox. 1985. Mass Murder: America's Growing Menace. New York: Plenum.
38.
Lieberson, Stanley
. 1991. “Small N's and Big Conclusions: An Examination of the Reasoning in Comparative Studies Based on a Small Number of Cases.”Social Forces70:307-320.
39.
Lieberson, Stanley
. 1994. “More on the Uneasy Case for Using Mill-Type Methods in Small-N Comparative Studies.”Social Forces72:1225-1237.
40.
Lieberson, Stanley
. 1997. “Modeling Social Processes: Some Lessons From Sports.”Sociological Perspectives12:11-35.
41.
Lipjhart, Arend
. 1971. “Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method.”American Political Science Review65:682-693.
42.
Mahoney, James
. 1999. “Nominal, Ordinal, and Narrative Appraisal in Macrocausal Analysis.”American Journal of Sociology104:1154-1196.
43.
Mahoney, James
. 2000. “Strategies of Causal Inference in Small N Analysis.”Sociological Methods and Research28(4):387-424.
44.
McGee, James P.
and Caren R. DeBernardo. 1999. “The Classroom Avenger: A Behavioral Profile of School Based Shootings.”Forensic Examiner8(5/6):16-18.
45.
Meloy, J. Reid
, Anthony G. Hempel, Kris Mohandie, Andrew A. Shiva, and B. Thomas Gray. 2001. “Offender and Offense Characteristics of a Nonrandom Sample of Adolescent Mass Murderers.”Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry40(6):719-728.
46.
Mill, John Stuart
. [1843] 1974. A System of Logic. Reprint, Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto Press.
47.
Moore, Rebecca
and Fielding M. McGehee, eds. 1989. New Religious Movements, Mass Suicide, and Peoples Temple: Scholarly Perspectives on a Tragedy. Studies in American Religion, Volume 37. Lewiston, NY: Edwin Mellen.
48.
National Research Council and Institute of Medicine
. 2002. Deadly Lessons: Understanding Lethal School Violence. Case Studies of School Violence Committee, edited by Mark H. Moore, Carol V. Petrie, Anthony A. Braga, and Brenda L. McLaughlin. Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
49.
National School Safety Center. 2001. Report on School Associated Violent Deaths. Retrieved May 16, 2001, from www.nssc1.org
50.
Nelson, James F.1980. “Multiple Victimization in American Cities: A Statistical Analysis of Rare Events.”American Journal of Sociology85(4):870-891.
51.
Newman, Katherine S., Cybelle Fox, David Harding, Jal Mehta, and Wendy Roth. Forthcoming. The School Shooter: The Causes and Consequences of Rampage Killings in American Schools.
52.
Nichols, Elizabeth
. 1986. “Skocpol on Revolution: Comparative Analysis vs. Historical Conjecture.”Comparative Social Research9:163-186.
53.
O'Kane, Rosemary
. 1981. “A Probabilistic Approach to the Causes of Coups D'Etat.”British Journal of Political Science2(3):287-308.
54.
Olzak, Susan, Suzanne Shanahan
, and Elizabeth H. McEneaney. 1996. “Poverty, Segregation, and Race Riots: 1960-1993.”American Sociological Review61(4):590-613.
55.
O'Toole, Mary Ellen
. 2000. The School Shooter: A Threat Assessment Perspective. Quantico, VA: National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime, FBI.
56.
Perrow, Charles
. 1984. Normal Accidents: Living With High-Risk Technologies. New York: Basic Books.
57.
Popp, Karen A.2000. “The Impeachment of President Clinton: An Ugly Mix of Three Powerful Forces.”Law and Contemporary Problems63(1-2):223-243.
58.
Poussaint, Alvin F.
and Amy Alexander. 2000. Lay My Burden Down: Unraveling Suicide and the Mental Health Crisis Among African-Americans. Boston: Beacon.
59.
Ragin, Charles C.1987. The Comparative Method: Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. Berkeley: University of California Press.
60.
Ragin, Charles C.1997. “Turning the Tables: How Case-Oriented Research Challenges Variable-Oriented Research.”Comparative Social Research16:27-42.
61.
Ragin, Charles C.1998. “Case-Oriented Research and the Study of Social Action.” Pp. 158-168 in Rational Choice Theory and Large-Scale Data Analysis, edited by Hans-Peter Blossfeld and Gerald Prein. Boulder, CO: Westview.
62.
Ragin, Charles C.1999. “The distinctiveness of case-oriented research.”Health Services Research34(5): 1137-1151.
63.
Ragin, Charles C.2000. Fuzzy-Set Social Science. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
64.
Ragin, Charles C.
and Howard S. Becker. 1992. What Is a Case? Exploring the Foundations of Social Inquiry. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
65.
Reddy, Marisa
, Randy Borum, John Berglund, Bryan Vossekuil, Robert Fein, and William Modzeleski. 2001. “Evaluating Risk for Targeted Violence in Schools: Comparing Risk Assessment, Threat Assessment, and Other Approaches.”Psychology in the Schools38(2):157-172.
66.
Roth, Wendy D.
and Jal D. Mehta. 2002. “The Rashomon Effect: Combining Positivist and Interpretivist Approaches in the Analysis of Contested Events.”Sociological Methods & Research31(2):131-173.
67.
Sampson, Robert J.
and Stephen Raudenbush. 1999. “Systematic Social Observation of Public Spaces: A New Look at Disorder in Urban Neighborhoods.”American Journal of Sociology105:603-651.
68.
Sanchez, Susan M.
and Julia L. Higle. 1992. “Observational Studies of Rare Events: A Subset Selection Approach.”Journal of the American Statistical Association87(419):878-883.
69.
Sewell, William H.1996. “Three Temporalities: Toward an Eventful Sociology.” Pp. 245-280 in The Historic Turn in the Human Sciences, edited by Terrence J. McDonald. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
70.
Skocpol, Theda
. 1979. States and Social Revolutions. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
71.
Skocpol, Theda
. 1986. “Analyzing Causal Configurations in History: A Rejoinder to Nichols.”Comparative Social Research9:187-194.
72.
Skocpol, Theda
and Margaret Somers. 1980. “The Uses of Comparative History in Macrosocial Inquiry.”Comparative Studies in Society and History22:174-197.
73.
State of Colorado
. 2001. Report of Governor Bill Owens' Columbine Review Commission. Denver: State of Colorado.
74.
Sullivan, Mercer L.
and Rob T. Guerette. 2002. “The Copycat Factor: Mental Illness, Guns, and the Shooting Incident at Heritage High School, Rockdale County, Georgia.” In National Research Council and Institute of Medicine, Deadly Lessons: Understanding Lethal School Violence. Case Studies of School Violence Committee, edited by Mark H. Moore, Carol V. Petrie, Anthony A. Braga, and Brenda L. McLaughlin. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
75.
Symons, M. J.
, R. C. Grimson, and Y. C. Yuan. 1983. “Clustering of Rare Events.”Biometrics39:193-205.
76.
Vaughan, Diane
. 1986. The Challenger Launch Decision. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
77.
Vaughan, Diane
. 1999. “The Dark Side of Organizations: Mistake, Misconduct, and Disaster.”Annual Review of Sociology25:271-305.
78.
Verlinden, Stephanie
, Michel Hersen, and Jay Thomas. 2000. “Risk Factors in School Shootings.”Clinical Psychology Review20(1):3-56.
79.
Vossekuil, Bryan
, Marisa Reddy, and Robert Fein. 2000. “Safe School Initiative: An Interim Report on the Prevention of Targeted Violence in Schools.”Washington, DC: U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center, U.S. Department of Education, and National Institute of Justice.