This study explores and demonstrates the usefulness of artificial neural networks (ANNs) as an alternative approach to the use of multiple regression (MR) in tourism demand studies. The study uses Canadian tourism expenditures in the United States as a measure of demand to demonstrate its application. The results revealed that the use of ANNs in tourism demand studies may result in better estimates in terms of prediction bias and accuracy. Further applications of ANNs in the context of tourism demand analysis are needed to establish and confirm the results.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Chisholm, R. K., and G. R. Whitaker, Jr. (1971). Forecasting Methods. Homewood, IL: Irwin.
2.
Connor, D. (1988). “Data Transformation Explains the Basics of Neural Networks.”EDN, 33 (10): 138-144.
3.
Crouch, G. I. (1992). “Effect of Income and Price on International Tourism.”Annals of Tourism Research, 19 (4): 643-664.
4.
Crouch, G. I. (1994). “The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Survey of Practice.”Journal of Travel Research, 33 (1): 12-31.
5.
Donaldson, R. G., M. Kamstra, and H. Y. Kim (1993). Evaluating Alternative Models for Conditional Stock Volatility: Evidence from International Data. Working Paper, University of British Columbia.
6.
Dutta, S., and S. Shekhar (1988). “Bond Rating: A Non-Conservative Application of Neural Networks.” Proceedings of the 24th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences. IEEE Press, 2: 443-450.
7.
Frechtling, D. C. (1996). Practical Tourism Forecasting. Oxford, UK: Butterworth-Heinemann.
8.
Gibbons, J. D., and M. Fish (1985). “Devaluation and U.S. Tourism Expenditure in Mexico.”Annals of Tourism Research, 12 (4): 547-561.
9.
Gorr, W. L. (1994). “Research Prospective on Neural Network Forecasting.”International Journal of Forecasting, 10: 1-4.
10.
Gorr, W. L., D. Nagin, and J. Szczypula (1994). “Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Network and Statistical Models for Predicting Student Grade Point Averages.”International Journal of Forecasting, 10: 17-34.
11.
Gujarati, D. N. (1988). Basic Econometrics. 2d ed.New York: McGraw-Hill.
12.
Hill, T., L. Marquez, M. O’Connor, and W. Remus (1994). “Artificial Neural Network for Forecasting and Decision Making.”International Journal of Forecasting, 10: 5-15.
13.
Hill, T., M. O’Connor, and W. Remus (1996). “Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasts.”Management Science, 42 (7): 1082-1092.
14.
Hill, T., and W. Remus. (1994). “Neural Network Models for Intelligent Support of Managerial Decision Making.”Decision Support Systems, 11: 449-459.
15.
Jeng, Jiann-Min, and D. R. Fesenmaier (1996). “A Neural Network Approach to Discrete Choice Modeling.”Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 5 (1/2): 119-144.
16.
Johnson, P., and J. Ashworth (1990). “Modeling Tourism Demand: A Summary Review.”Leisure Studies, 9: 145-160.
17.
Kerlinger, F. N. (1986). Foundations of Behavioral Research. 3d ed.New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
18.
Kim, Y., and M. Uysal (1998). “Time-Dependent Analysis for International Hotel Demand in Seoul.”Tourism Economics, 4 (3): 253-263.
19.
Kliman, M. L. (1981). “A Quantitative Analysis of Canadian Overseas Tourism.”Transportation Research, 15A: 487-497.
20.
Lee, W. C., and J. K. Lee (1994). “A Two-Stage Neural Network Approach for ARMA Model Identification with ESACF.”Decision Support Systems, 11: 461-479.
21.
Lippmann, Richard P. (1987). “An Introduction to Computing with Neural Nets.”IEEE ASSP Magazine, April: 4-22.
22.
Martin, C. A., and S. F. Witt (1987). “Tourism Demand Forecasting Models: Choice of Appropriate Variable to Represent Tourists’ Cost of Living.”Tourism Management, 8 (3): 233-246.
23.
Mazanec, J. A. (1992). “Classifying Tourists into Market Segments: A Neural Network Approach.”Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 1 (1): 39-59.
24.
Mazanec, J. A. (1995). “Positioning Analysis with Self-Organizing Maps: An Exploratory Study on Luxury Hotels.”Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 36 (6): 80-95.
25.
Morley, C. (1991). “Modeling International Tourism Demand: Model Specification and Structure.”Journal of Travel Research, 30 (1): 40-44.
26.
Nelson, M. M., and W. T. Illingworth (1991). A Practical Guide to Neural Nets. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
27.
NeuralWare, Inc. (1993). Reference Guide: Software Reference for Professional II/Plus and Neuralworks Explorer. Pittsburgh, PA: Neural-Ware.
28.
NevProp [Computer software]. (1993). Reno: University of Nevada Centre for Biomedical Modeling Research, Washoe Medical Centre [version 1.xx for DOS].
29.
Pattie, C. D., and John Snyder (1996). “Using a Neural Network to Forecast Visitor Behavior.”Annals of Tourism Research, 23 (1): 151-164.
30.
Qiu, H., and J. Zhang (1995). “Determinants of Tourist Arrivals and Expenditures in Canada.”Journal of Travel Research, 33 (2): 43-49.
31.
Quayson, J., and T. Var (1982). “A Tourism Demand Function for the Okanagan, BC.”Tourism Management, 3 (3): 108-115.
32.
Ripley, B. D. (1994). “Neural Networks and Related Methods for Classification.”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 56 (3): 409-456.
33.
Sheldon, P. J., and T. Var (1985). “Tourism Forecasting: A Review of Empirical Research.”Journal of Forecasting, 4: 183-195.
34.
Simpson, P. K. (1990). Artificial Neural Systems: Foundations, Paradigms, Applications, and Implementations. Elmsford, NY: Pergamon.
35.
Summary, R. (1987). “Estimation of Tourism Demand by Multivariable Regression Analysis.”Tourism Management, 8 (4): 317-322.
36.
SPSS 6.1 for Windows [Computer software]. (1995). SPSS, Inc.
37.
Uysal, M. (1998). “The Determinants of Tourism Demand: A Theoretical Perspective.” In The Economic Geography of Tourism, edited by D. Ioannides and K. Debbage. London: Routledge, pp. 79-95.
38.
Uysal, M., and J. L. Crompton (1984). “Determinants of Demand for International Tourist Flows to Turkey.”Tourism Management5 (4): 286-297.
39.
Uysal, M., and J. L. Crompton (1985). “An Overview of Approaches Used to Forecast Tourism Demand.”Journal of Travel Research, 23 (4): 7-15.
40.
Van Doorn, J. W. (1982). “Can Futures Research Contribute to Tourism Policy.”Tourism Management, 3 (3): 149-166.
41.
Var, T., and C. Lee (1993). “Tourism Forecasting: State-of-the Art Techniques.” In Encyclopedia of Hospitality and Tourism, edited by M. Khan, M. Olsen, and T. Var. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, pp. 679-696.
42.
Witt, F. S., and C. A. Witt (1992). Modeling and Forecasting Tourism. London: Academic Press.
43.
Witt, F. S., and C. A. Witt (1995). “Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Review of Empirical Research.”International Journal of Forecasting, 41 (February): 212-235.