Restricted accessResearch articleFirst published online 2021-9
How the Spread of User-Generated Contents (UGC) Shapes International Tourism Distribution: Using Agent-Based Modeling to Inform Strategic UGC Marketing
While user-generated contents (UGC) are recognized as increasingly important to destination marketing, many DMOs are uncertain how to strategically manage them to their best advantage, largely due to their lack of understanding of mechanisms underlying the UGC effects. By integrating multiple theories of travel decision-making and UGC distribution, this study develops and validates an agent-based model to inform DMOs of potential causal mechanisms of how individual tourists’ UGC behavioral features shape international arrival distribution via the social media channels of review sites (RSs) and social networking sites (SNSs). Simulated experiments with the model decompose and assess the complex UGC behavioral effects, which further suggest context-based favorable UGC distribution statuses for DMOs’ strategic UGC marketing. The model developed following a rigid procedure offers a promising UGC research approach toward the combination of restrictive causal conceptualization and real-life replicability. It also provides an adaptive prototype for cost-effective UGC effect assessments by DMOs.
AlegreJoaquínCladeraMagdalena. 2006. “Repeat Visitation in Mature Sun and Sand Holiday Destinations.” Journal of Travel Research44 (3): 288–97.
2.
AlimanNor KhasimahHashimShareena MohamedDalelaSitiWahidMohdHarudinSyahmi. 2016. “Tourists’ Satisfaction with a Destination: An Investigation on Visitors to Langkawi Island.” International Journal of Marketing Studies8 (3): 173–88.
3.
AlvarezEmilianoBridaJuan Gabriel. 2019. “An Agent-Based Model of Tourism Destinations Choice.” International Journal of Tourism Research21 (2): 145–55.
4.
AndersonEugene W.1998. “Customer Satisfaction and Word of Mouth.” Journal of Service Research1 (1): 5–17.
5.
BassFrank M.1969. “A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables.” Management Science15 (5): 215–27.
6.
BattyMichael. 2008. “The Size, Scale, and Shape of Cities.” Science319 (5864): 769–71.
BignéEnriqueWilliamEduSoria-OlivasEmilio. 2020. “Similarity and Consistency in Hotel Online Ratings across Platforms.” Journal of Travel Research59 (4): 742–58.
9.
Boavida-PortugalInêsFerreiraCarlos CardosoRochaJorge. 2017. “Where to Vacation? An Agent-Based Approach to Modelling Tourist Decision-Making Process.” Current Issues in Tourism20 (15): 1557–74.
10.
BonabeauEric. 2002. “Agent-Based Modeling: Methods and Techniques for Simulating Human Systems.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences99 (suppl 3): 7280–87.
11.
BronnerFredde HoogRobert. 2011. “Vacationers and eWOM: Who Posts, and Why, Where, and What?” Journal of Travel Research50 (1): 15–26.
BruchElizabethAtwellJon. 2015. “Agent-Based Models in Empirical Social Research.” Sociological Methods & Research44 (2): 186–221.
14.
BrunnerEdgarDomhofSebastianLangerFrankBrunnerEdgar. 2002. Nonparametric Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Factorial Experiments. New York: Wiley.
15.
CantallopsAntoni SerraSalviFabiana. 2014. “New Consumer Behavior: A Review of Research on eWOM and Hotels.” International Journal of Hospitality Management36:41–51.
16.
Casado-DíazAna B.AndreuLuisaBeckmannSusanne C.MillerCaitlin. 2020. “Negative Online Reviews and Webcare Strategies in Social Media: Effects on Hotel Attitude and Booking Intentions.” Current Issues in Tourism23 (4): 418–22.
17.
ChenYi-FanLawRob. 2016. “A Review of Research on Electronic Word-of-Mouth in Hospitality and Tourism Management.” International Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Administration17 (4): 347–72.
EisingerichAndreas B.ChunHaeEun HelenLiuYeyiJiaHe MichaelBellSimon J.2015. “Why Recommend a Brand Face-to-Face but Not on Facebook? How Word-of-Mouth on Online Social Sites Differs from Traditional Word-of-Mouth.” Journal of Consumer Psychology25 (1): 120–28.
20.
ElliotStatiaLiGuoxinChoiChris. 2013. “Understanding Service Quality in a Virtual Travel Community Environment.” Journal of Business Research66 (8): 1153–60.
Femenia-SerraFranciscoGretzelUlrike. 2020. “Influencer Marketing for Tourism Destinations: Lessons from a Mature Destination.” In Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2020, edited by J.NeidhardtWörndlW., 65–78. Switzerland: Springer.
23.
FilieriRaffaeleAlguezauiSalmaMcLeayFraser. 2015. “Why Do Travelers Trust TripAdvisor? Antecedents of Trust towards Consumer-Generated Media and Its Influence on Recommendation Adoption and Word of Mouth.” Tourism Management51:174–85.
24.
FinnAdam. 2012. “Customer Delight: Distinct Construct or Zone of Nonlinear Response to Customer Satisfaction?” Journal of Service Research15 (1): 99–110.
25.
ForbesLukas P.2013. “Does Social Media Influence Consumer Buying Behavior? An Investigation of Recommendations and Purchases.” Journal of Business & Economics Research11 (2): 107–12.
26.
GretzelUlrikeKangMyunghwaLeeWoojin. 2008. “Differences in Consumer-Generated Media Adoption and Use: A Cross-National Perspective.” Journal of Hospitality & Leisure Marketing17 (1/2): 99–120.
27.
GrimmVolkerRailsbackSteven F.2012. “Designing, Formulating, and Communicating Agent-Based Models.” In Agent-Based Models of Geographical Systems, edited by A.HeppenstallCrooksA.SeeL. M.BattyM., 361–77. Netherlands: Springer.
28.
GursoyDoganDel ChiappaGiacomoZhangYi. 2017. “Preferences Regarding External Information Sources: A Conjoint Analysis of Visitors to Sardinia, Italy.” Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing34 (6): 806–20.
29.
HaysStephaniePageStephen JohnBuhalisDimitrios. 2013. “Social Media as a Destination Marketing Tool: Its Use by National Tourism Organisations.” Current Issues in Tourism16 (3): 211–39.
30.
HudsonSimonThalKaren. 2013. “The Impact of Social Media on The Consumer Decision Process: Implications for Tourism Marketing.” Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing30 (1/2): 156–60.
31.
Huerta-ÁlvarezRocíoCambra-FierroJesús J.Fuentes-BlascoMaria. 2020. “The Interplay between Social Media Communication, Brand Equity and Brand Engagement in Tourist Destinations: An Analysis in an Emerging Economy.” Journal of Destination Marketing & Management16:1–12.
32.
HwangY.GretzelUlrikeXiangZhengFesenmaierDaniel R.2006. “Information Search for Travel Decisions.” Destination Recommendation Systems: Behavioral Foundations and Applications42 (4): 357–71.
33.
JabotFranckFaureThierryDumoulinNicolas. 2013. “Easy ABC: Performing Efficient Approximate Bayesian Computation Sampling Schemes Using R.” Methods in Ecology and Evolution4 (7): 684–87.
JacobsenJens Kr SteenMunarAna María. 2012. “Tourist Information Search and Destination Choice in a Digital Age.” Tourism Management Perspectives1:39–47.
36.
JohnsonPeter A.SieberRenee E.2011. “An Agent-Based Approach to Providing Tourism Planning Support.” Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design38 (3): 486–504.
37.
KangDaekookSongBomiYoonByoungunLeeYoungjoParkYongtae. 2015. “Diffusion Pattern Analysis for Social Networking Sites Using Small-World Network Multiple Influence Model.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change95:73–86.
38.
KaosiriYeamduan NarangajavanaFiolLuis Jose CallarisaTenaMiguel Angel MolinerArtolaRosa Maria RodriguezGarciaJavier Sanchez. 2019. “User-Generated Content Sources in Social Media: A New Approach to Explore Tourist Satisfaction.” Journal of Travel Research58 (2): 253–65.
KieslingElmarGüntherMarkusStummerChristianWakolbingerLea M. 2012. “Agent-Based Simulation of Innovation Diffusion: A Review.” Central European Journal of Operations Research20 (2): 183–230.
41.
KietzmannJanCanhotoAna. 2013. “Bittersweet! Understanding and Managing Electronic Word of Mouth.” Journal of Public Affairs13 (2): 146–159.
42.
KimDongHeeJangSooCheong Shawn. 2019. “The Psychological and Motivational Aspects of Restaurant Experience Sharing Behavior on Social Networking Sites.” Service Business13 (1): 25–49.
43.
KimWoo GonParkSeo Ah. 2017. “Social Media Review Rating versus Traditional Customer Satisfaction: Which One Has More Incremental Predictive Power in Explaining Hotel Performance?” International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management29 (2): 784–802.
44.
KonietschkeFrankPlaczekMariusSchaarschmidtFrankHothornLudwig A.2015. “nparcomp: An R Software Package for Nonparametric Multiple Comparisons and Simultaneous Confidence Intervals.” Journal of Statistical Software64 (9): 1–17.
45.
LadhariRiadhMichaudMélissa. 2015. “eWOM Effects on Hotel Booking Intentions, Attitudes, Trust, and Website Perceptions.” International Journal of Hospitality Management46:36–45.
46.
LeeHee “Andy”LawRobMurphyJamie. 2011. “Helpful Reviewers in TripAdvisor, an Online Travel Community.” Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing28 (7): 675–88.
47.
LemaireBastien S.ViblancVincent A.Jozet-AlvesChristelle. 2019. “Sex-Specific Lateralization during Aggressive Interactions in Breeding King Penguins.” Ethology125 (7): 439–49.
48.
LiJingjingXuLizhiTangLingWangShouyangLiLing. 2018. “Big Data in Tourism Research: A Literature Review.” Tourism Management68:301–23.
49.
LitvinStephen W.GoldsmithRonald E.PanBing. 2008. “Electronic Word-of-Mouth in Hospitality and Tourism Management.” Tourism Management29 (3): 458–68.
50.
LiuHongboWuLaurieLiXiang. 2019. “Social Media Envy: How Experience Sharing on Social Networking Sites Drives Millennials’ Aspirational Tourism Consumption.” Journal of Travel Research58 (3): 355–69.
51.
LuWeilinStepchenkovaSvetlana. 2015. “User-Generated Content as a Research Mode in Tourism and Hospitality Applications: Topics, Methods, and Software.” Journal of Hospitality Marketing & Management24 (2): 119–54.
52.
LundNiels FrederikScarlesCarolineCohenScott A.2020. “The Brand Value Continuum: Countering Co-destruction of Destination Branding in Social Media through Storytelling.” Journal of Travel Research. 59 (8): 1506-1521. doi:0047287519887234.
53.
LuoQiujuZhongDixi. 2015. “Using Social Network Analysis to Explain Communication Characteristics of Travel-Related Electronic Word-of-Mouth on Social Networking Sites.” Tourism Management46:274–82.
MatzlerK.SauerweinE.2002. “The Factor Structure of Customer Satisfaction: An Empirical Test of The Importance Grid and The Penalty-Reward-Contrast Analysis.” International Journal of Service Industry Management13 (4): 314–32.
56.
McKercherBobChanAndrewLamCelia. 2008. “The Impact of Distance on International Tourist Movements.” Journal of Travel Research47 (2): 208–24.
57.
MietznerDanaRegerGuido. 2005. “Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight.” International Journal Technology Intelligence and Planning1 (2): 220–39.
MüllerBirgitBohnFriedrichDreblerGunnarGroeneveldJürgenKlassertChristianMartinRominaSchlüterMajaSchulzeJuleWeiseHannaSchwarzNina. 2013. “Describing Human Decisions in Agent-Based Models—ODD+ D, an Extension of the ODD Protocol.” Environmental Modelling & Software48:37–48.
60.
MunarAna Maria. 2012. “Social Media Strategies and Destination Management.” Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism12 (2): 101–20.
61.
MunarAna MaríaJacobsenJens Kr. Steen. 2014. “Motivations for Sharing Tourism Experiences through Social Media.” Tourism Management43:46–54.
62.
NarangajavanaYeamduanJoséLuisFiolCallarisaÁngelMiguelTenaMolinerMaríaRosaArtolaRodríguezGarcíaJavier Sánchez. 2017. “The Influence of Social Media in Creating Expectations. An Empirical Study for a Tourist Destination.” Annals of Tourism Research65:60–70.
63.
NichollsSarahAmelungBasStudentJillian. 2017. “Agent-Based Modeling: A Powerful Tool for Tourism Researchers.” Journal of Travel Research56 (1): 3–15.
64.
NicolauJuan L.MasFrancisco J.2006. “The Influence of Distance and Prices on The Choice of Tourist Destinations: The Moderating Role of Motivations.” Tourism Management27 (5): 982–96.
65.
NoguchiKimihiroGelYulia R.BrunnerEdgarKonietschkeFrank. 2012. “nparLD: An R Software Package for the Nonparametric Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Factorial Experiments.” Journal of Statistical Software50 (12): 1–22.
66.
OliveiraTiagoAraujoBeneditaTamCarlos. 2020. “Why Do People Share Their Travel Experiences on Social Media?” Tourism Management78:104041.
67.
ÖnderIremGunterUlrichGindlStefan. 2020. “Utilizing Facebook Statistics in Tourism Demand Modeling and Destination Marketing.” Journal of Travel Research59 (2): 195–208.
68.
OstromskyTzvetanDimovIvanGeorgievaRaynaZlatevZahari. 2009. “Sensitivity Analysis of a Large-Scale Air Pollution Model: Numerical Aspects and a Highly Parallel Implementation.” Paper presented at: International Conference on Large-Scale Scientific Computing, Sozopol, Bulgaria, June 4–8.
69.
ParikhAnishBehnkeCarlVorvoreanuMihaelaAlmanzaBarbaraNelsonDoug. 2014. “Motives for Reading and Articulating User-Generated Restaurant Reviews on Yelp.com.” Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Technology5 (2): 160–76.
70.
PlummerMartynBestNickyCowlesKateVinesKaren. 2006. “CODA: Convergence Diagnosis and Output Analysis for MCMC.” R News6 (1): 7–11.
QiuLingyunWangWeiquan. 2011. “The Effects of Message Order and Information Chunking on eWOM Persuasion.” Paper presented at: Pacific Asia Conference on Information Systems, Brisbane, Australia, July 7–11.
73.
RailsbackSteven F.LytinenSteven L.JacksonStephen K.2006. “Agent-Based Simulation Platforms: Review and Development Recommendations.” Simulation82 (9): 609–23.
74.
RanaweeraChaturaJayawardhenaChanaka. 2014. “Talk Up or Criticize? Customer Responses to WOM about Competitors during Social Interactions.” Journal of Business Research67 (12): 2645–56.
75.
RandWilliamRustRoland T.2011. “Agent-Based Modeling in Marketing: Guidelines for Rigor.” International Journal of Research in Marketing28 (3): 181–93.
76.
ReicheltJonasSievertJensJacobFrank. 2014. “How Credibility Affects eWOM Reading: The Influences of Expertise, Trustworthiness, and Similarity on Utilitarian and Social Functions.” Journal of Marketing Communications20 (1/2): 65–81.
77.
RogersEverett M.2010. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: Simon & Schuster.
ShinHakseungPerdueRichard R.PandelaereMario. 2020. “Managing Customer Reviews for Value Co-creation: An Empowerment Theory Perspective.” Journal of Travel Research59 (5): 792–810.
80.
SotiriadisMarios D.Van ZylCinà. 2013. “Electronic Word-of-Mouth and Online Reviews in Tourism Services: The Use of Twitter by Tourists.” Electronic Commerce Research13 (1): 103–24.
81.
SparksBeverley A.BrowningVictoria. 2011. “The Impact of Online Reviews on Hotel Booking Intentions and Perception of Trust.” Tourism Management32 (6): 1310–23.
82.
SparksBeverley A.SoKevin Kam FungBradleyGraham L.2016. “Responding to Negative Online Reviews: The Effects of Hotel Responses on Customer Inferences of Trust and Concern.” Tourism Management53:74–85.
83.
StemerdingMarcOppewalHarmenTimmermansHarry. 1999. “A Constraints-Induced Model of Park Choice.” Leisure Sciences21 (2): 145–58.
84.
ThieleJan CKurthWinfriedGrimmVolker. 2014. “Facilitating Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Agent-Based Models: A Cookbook Using NetLogo and R.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation17 (3): 1–45.
85.
ThiriotSamuelKantJean-Daniel. 2008. “Using Associative Networks to Represent Adopters’ Beliefs in a Multiagent Model of Innovation Diffusion.” Advances in Complex Systems11 (2): 261–72.
86.
TsaoWen-ChinHsiehMing-TsangShihLi-WenLinTom M. Y.2015. “Compliance with eWOM: The Influence of Hotel Reviews on Booking Intention from the Perspective of Consumer Conformity.” International Journal of Hospitality Management46:99–111.
Van MiddelkoopM.BorgersA.TimmermansH.2003. “Inducing Heuristic Principles of Tourist Choice of Travel Mode: A Rule-Based Approach.” Journal of Travel Research42 (1): 75–83.
89.
VinogradovEvgueniLeickBirgitKivedalBjørnar Karlsen. 2020. “An Agent-Based Modelling Approach to Housing Market Regulations and Airbnb-Induced Tourism.” Tourism Management77:104004.
WilenskyUri. 1999. “NetLogo. Evanston, IL.” Center for Connected Learning and Computer Based Modeling, Northwestern University. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo.
92.
WillerRobbKuwabaraKoMacyMichael W.2009. “The False Enforcement of Unpopular Norms 1.” American Journal of Sociology115 (2): 451–90.
93.
WilsonAlanMurphyHilaryFierroJesus Cambra. 2012. “Hospitality and Travel: The Nature and Implications of User-Generated Content.” Cornell Hospitality Quarterly53 (3): 220–28.
World Economic Forum. 2015. The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2015: Growth through Shocks, edited by RobertoCrottiMisrahiTiffany. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
96.
XiangZhengMagniniVincent P.FesenmaierDaniel R.2015. “Information Technology and Consumer Behavior in Travel and Tourism: Insights from Travel Planning Using the Internet.” Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services22:244–49.
97.
YenChih-Lun AlanTangChun-Hung Hugo. 2019. “The Effects of Hotel Attribute Performance on Electronic Word-of-Mouth (eWOM) Behaviors.” International Journal of Hospitality Management76:9–18.
98.
YooKyung HyanGretzelUlrikeZachFlorian. 2011. “Travel Opinion Leaders and Seekers.” In Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2011, edited by RobLawFuchsMatthiasRicciFrancesco, 525–35. Vienna: Springer.
99.
ZengBenxiangGerritsenRolf. 2014. “What Do We Know about Social Media in Tourism? A Review.” Tourism Management Perspectives10:27–36.
100.
ZhaiXuetingZhongDixiLuoQiuju. 2019. “Turn It around in Crisis Communication: An ABM Approach.” Annals of Tourism Research79:102807.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
