The increasing power of technology puts new, advanced statistical tools at the disposal of researchers. This is one of the first research articles to use a data mining tool—namely, decision trees—to analyze the behavior of inbound tourists for the purpose of effective future destination marketing in Japan. The research results of approximately 4,000 observations show that the main motivation for visitors’ future return is not driven by experiences had during their most current visit but rather by experiences anticipated in the future, such as visiting hot springs or immersing themselves in beautiful natural settings. The data mining method largely excludes the possibility of the intrusion of researcher subjectivity and is conducive to useful discoveries of certain visitor patterns in large data sets, providing governments and destination marketing organizations with additional tools to better formulate effective destination marketing strategies.
AhmedZ. U.1991. “The Influence of the Components of a State’s Tourist Image on Product Positioning Strategy.”Tourism management12 (4): 331–40.
2.
AlegreJ.GarauJ.2011. “The Factor Structure of Tourist Satisfaction at Sun and Sand Destinations.”Journal of Travel Research50 (1): 78–86.
3.
AptéC.WeissS.1997. “Data Mining with Decision Trees and Decision Rules.”Future Generation Computer Systems13 (2): 197–210.
4.
AssakerG.VinziV. E.O’ConnorP.2011. “Examining the Effect of Novelty Seeking, Satisfaction, and Destination Image on Tourists’ Return Pattern: A Two Factor, Non-linear Latent Growth Model.”Tourism Management32 (4): 890–901.
5.
AthiyamanA.1997. “Knowledge Development in Tourism: Tourism Demand Research.”Tourism Management18 (4): 221–8.
6.
BajsI. P.2015. “Tourist Perceived Value, Relationship to Satisfaction, and Behavioral Intentions the Example of the Croatian Tourist Destination Dubrovnik.”Journal of Travel Research54 (1): 122–34.
7.
BalogluS.McClearyK. W.1999. “US International Pleasure Travelers’ Images of Four Mediterranean Destinations: A Comparison of Visitors and Nonvisitors.”Journal of Travel Research38 (2): 144–52.
8.
BerryM. J.LinoffG.2000. Mastering Data Mining, 1st ed.Canada: Wiley Computer.
9.
BlandJ. M.AltmanD. G.2000. “The Odds Ratio.”British Medical Journal320 (7247): 1468.
10.
BrownT. J.BarryT. E.DacinP. A.GunstR. F.2005. “Spreading the Word: Investigating Antecedents of Consumers’ Positive Word-of-Mouth Intentions and Behaviors in a Retailing Context.”Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science33 (2): 123–38.
11.
BuhalisD.1997. “Information Technology as a Strategic Tool for Economic, Social, Cultural and Environmental Benefits Enhancement of Tourism at Destination Regions.”Progress in Tourism and Hospitality Research3 (1): 71–93.
12.
BuhalisD.1998. “Strategic Use of Information Technologies in the Tourism Industry.”Tourism Management19 (5): 409–21.
13.
BuhalisD.1999. “Tourism on the Greek Islands: Issues of Peripherality, Competitiveness and Development.”International Journal of Tourism Research1 (5): 341–58.
14.
BuhalisD.2000. “Marketing the Competitive Destination of the Future.”Tourism Management21 (1): 97–116.
15.
BuhalisD.LawR.2008. “Progress in Information Technology and Tourism Management: 20 Years on and 10 Years after the Internet—The State of eTourism Research.”Tourism Management29 (4): 609–23.
16.
CampeloA.AitkenR.GnothJ.2011. “Visual Rhetoric and Ethics in Marketing of Destinations.”Journal of Travel Research50 (1): 3–14.
17.
ChangK.ChenM.KuoN.HsuC.ChengY.2016. “Applying Data Mining Methods to Tourist Loyalty Intentions in the International Tourist Hotel Sector.”Anatolia: An International Journal of Tourism & Hospitality Research27 (2): 271–74.
ChiC. G. Q.QuH.2008. “Examining the Structural Relationships of Destination Image, Tourist Satisfaction and Destination Loyalty: An Integrated Approach.”Tourism Management29 (4): 624–36.
20.
De ReyckB.DegraeveZ.VandenborreR.2008. “Project Options Valuation with Net Present Value and Decision Tree Analysis.”European Journal of Operational Research184 (1): 341–55.
21.
DuncanR.1980. “What Is the Right Organization Structure? Decision Tree Analysis Provides the Answer.”Organizational Dynamics7 (3): 59–80.
22.
DwyerL.PhamT.ForsythP.SpurrR.2014. “Destination Marketing of Australia Return on Investment.”Journal of Travel Research53 (3): 281–95.
23.
FakeyeP. C.CromptonJ. L.1991. “Image Differences between Prospective, First-Time, and Repeat Visitors to the Lower Rio Grande Valley.”Journal of Travel Research30 (2): 10–16.
24.
FayyadU. M.Piatetsky-ShapiroG.SmythP.UthurusamyR.1996. “Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining.”AI Magazine17 (3): 37–54.
25.
FrawleyW. J.Piatetsky-ShapiroG.MatheusC. J.1992. “Knowledge Discovery in Databases: An Overview.”AI Magazine13 (3): 57.
26.
FuchsG.ReichelA.2011. “An Exploratory Inquiry into Destination Risk Perceptions and Risk Reduction Strategies of First Time vs. Repeat Visitors to a Highly Volatile Destination.”Tourism Management32 (2): 266–76.
27.
GallarzaM. G.SauraI. G.2006. “Value Dimensions, Perceived Value, Satisfaction and Loyalty: An Investigation of University Students’ Travel Behavior.”Tourism Management27 (3): 437–52.
28.
GohC.LawR.MokH. M.2008. “Analyzing and Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Rough Sets Approach.”Journal of Travel Research46 (3): 327–38.
29.
HallC. M.HallM.2000. Tourism Planning: Policies, Processes and Relationships. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education.
30.
HallowellR.1996. “The Relationships of Customer Satisfaction, Customer Loyalty, and Profitability: An Empirical Study.”International Journal of Service Industry Management7 (4): 27–42.
31.
Hernández LobatoL.Solis-RadillaM. M.Moliner-TenaM. A.Sánchez-GarcíaJ.2006. “Tourism Destination Image, Satisfaction and Loyalty: A Study in Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo, Mexico.”Tourism Geographies8 (4): 343–58.
32.
HoskingJ. R.PednaultE. P.SudanM.1997. “A Statistical Perspective on Data Mining.”Future Generation Computer Systems13 (2): 117–34.
33.
JNTO (Japan National Tourism Organization). 2012. “Foreign Visitors and Japanese Departures.”Report prepared by Japan National Tourism Organization. (Accessed on November 2014).
34.
Japan Tourism Research and Consulting Co. 2016. “Historical Statistics–Visitors to Japan from Overseas.”Report prepared by National Tourism Organization, January15, 2016http://www.tourism.jp/en/statistics/inbound/.
35.
JoppeM.MartinD. W.WaalenJ.2001. “Toronto’s Image as a Destination: A Comparative Importance-Satisfaction Analysis by Origin of Visitor.”Journal of Travel Research39 (3): 252–60.
36.
KimS. S.TimothyD. J.HwangJ.2011. “Understanding Japanese Tourists’ Shopping Preferences Using the Decision Tree Analysis Method.”Tourism Management32 (3): 544–54.
37.
KozakM.RimmingtonM.2000. “Tourist Satisfaction with Mallorca, Spain, as an Off-Season Holiday Destination.”Journal of Travel Research38 (3): 260–69.
38.
LaesserC.DolnicarS.2012. “Impulse Purchasing in Tourism—Learnings from a Study in a Matured Market.”Anatolia23 (2): 268–86.
39.
LeeB.LeeC. K.LeeJ.2014. “Dynamic Nature of Destination Image and Influence of Tourist Overall Satisfaction on Image Modification.”Journal of Travel Research53 (2): 239–51.
40.
LeeJ. J.KyleG.ScottD.2012. “The Mediating Effect of Place Attachment on the Relationship between Festival Satisfaction and Loyalty to the Festival Hosting Destination.”Journal of Travel Research51:754–67.
41.
LeiperN.1995. Tourism Management, Vol. 455. French Forest: Pearson Education Australia.
42.
LitvinS. W.GoldsmithR. E.PanB.2008. “Electronic Word-of-Mouth in Hospitality and Tourism Management.”Tourism Management29 (3): 458–68.
43.
LiuZ.SiguawJ. A.EnzC. A.2008. “Using Tourist Travel Habits and Preferences to Assess Strategic Destination Positioning the Case of Costa Rica.”Cornell Hospitality Quarterly49 (3): 258–81.
44.
LuptonR. A.1997. “Customer Portfolio Development: Modeling Destination Adopters, Inactives, and Rejecters.”Journal of Travel Research36 (1): 35–43.
45.
MaimonO.RokachL.2010. Decomposition Methodology for Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. Boston, MA: Springer US.
46.
MaxhamJ. G.2001. “Service Recovery’s Influence on Consumer Satisfaction, Positive Word-of-Mouth, and Purchase Intentions.”Journal of Business Research54 (1): 11–24.
47.
MinH.MinH.EmamA.2002. “A Data Mining Approach to Developing the Profiles of Hotel Customers.”International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management14 (6): 274–85.
48.
MishlerA. L.1965. “Personal Contact in International Exchange.” In International Behavior, a Social-Psychological Analysis, edited by Kelman.Herbert C.New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
49.
NisbetR.ElderJ.IVMinerG.2009. Handbook of Statistical Analysis and Data Mining Applications. Burlington, MA: Elsevier.
50.
OkamuraK.FukushigeM.2010. “Differences in Travel Objectives between First-Time and Repeat Tourists: An Empirical Analysis for the Kansai Area in Japan.”International Journal of Tourism Research12 (6): 647–64.
51.
ÖzdemirG.ŞimşekÖ. F.2015. “The Antecedents of Complex Destination Image.”Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences175:503–10.
PizamA.NeumannY.ReichelA.1978. “Dimensions of Tourist Satisfaction with a Destination Area.”Annals of Tourism Research5 (3): 314–22.
58.
PoolI. D.1965. “Effects of Cross-National Contact on Nation and International Images.” In International Behavior: A Social Psychological Analysis, edited by Kelman.Herbert C.New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
59.
PyoS.UysalM.ChangH.2002. “Knowledge Discovery in Database for Tourist Destinations.”Journal of Travel Research40 (4): 374–84.
60.
QuY.AdamB. L.YasuiY.WardM. D.CazaresL. H.SchellhammerP. F.WrightG. L.2002. “Boosted Decision Tree Analysis of Surface-Enhanced Laser Desorption/Ionization Mass Spectral Serum Profiles Discriminates Prostate Cancer from Noncancer Patients.”Clinical Chemistry48 (10): 1835–43.
Ramseook-MunhurrunP.SeebaluckV. N.NaidooP.2015. “Examining the Structural Relationships of Destination Image, Perceived Value, Tourist Satisfaction and Loyalty: Case of Mauritius.”Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences175:252–59.
63.
RanaweeraC.PrabhuJ.2003. “On the Relative Importance of Customer Satisfaction and Trust as Determinants of Customer Retention and Positive Word of Mouth.”Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing12 (1): 82–90.
RyanC.1991. “Tourism and Marketing—A Symbiotic Relationship?”Tourism Management12 (2): 101–11.
66.
SheldonP.1994. “Information Technology and Computer Systems.” In Tourism Marketing and Management Handbook, 2nd ed., edited by WittS. F.MountinhoL., 126–30. Hemel Hempstead, UK: Prentice Hall.
67.
SomA. P. M.BadarnehM. B.2011. “Tourist Satisfaction and Repeat Visitation; Toward a New Comprehensive Model.”International Journal of Human and Social Sciences6 (1): 38–45.
68.
TranX.RalstonL.2006. “Tourist Preferences Influence of Unconscious Needs.”Annals of Tourism Research33 (2): 424–41.
69.
UNWTO. 2011. Policy and Practice for Global Tourism. Madrid: UNWTO.
70.
UzamaA.2009. “Marketing Japan’s Travel and Tourism Industry to International Tourists.”International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management21 (3): 356–65.
71.
ValleP. O. D.SilvaJ. A.MendesJ.GuerreiroM.2006. “Tourist Satisfaction and Destination Loyalty Intention: A Structural and Categorical Analysis.”International Journal of Business Science and Applied Management1 (1): 25–44.
WangY.PizamA.2011. Destination Marketing and Management: Theories and Applications, 1st ed. Oxfordshire, UK: CABI.
74.
WeiermairK.2000. “Tourists’ Perceptions towards and Satisfaction with Service Quality in the Cross-Cultural Service Encounter: Implications for Hospitality and Tourism Management.”Managing Service Quality10 (6): 397–409.
75.
WickerP.BreuerC.2013. “Exploring the Critical Determinants of Organizational Problems Using Data Mining Techniques: Evidence from Non-profit Sports Clubs in Germany.”Managing Leisure18 (2): 118–34.
76.
WoodsideA. G.LysonskiS.1989. “A General Model of Traveler Destination Choice.”Journal of Travel Research27 (4): 8–14.
YoonY.UysalM.2005. “An Examination of the Effects of Motivation and Satisfaction on Destination Loyalty: A Structural Model.”Tourism Management26 (1): 45–56.
