Do Satisfied Tourists Really Intend to Come Back? Three Concerns with Empirical Studies of the Link between Satisfaction and Behavioral Intention

Abstract

Explaining human behavior is a primary concern for tourism research and a substantial body of research concludes that highly satisfied tourists are more likely to return to a particular destination. In this article, we provide an analysis of this body of work, arriving at three concerns relating to the strength of association between satisfaction and behavioral intention: (1) the link between constructs is complex, resulting in the frequent omission of causal factors; (2) inconsistency with construct operationalization impedes cumulative knowledge development; and (3) explainable variance is impeded by between-study heterogeneity. We illustrate these problems by analyzing empirical guest survey data and conducting a meta-analysis of published papers in the three top tourism journals between 2002 and 2011. We offer four recommendations for future research investigating the link between satisfaction and behavioral intention.

Keywords

satisfaction behavioral intentions causality operationalization

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Aasaker

Vinzi

V.Esposito

O’Connor

(2011). “Examining the Effect of Novelty Seeking, Satisfaction, and Destination Image on Tourist’s Return Pattern: A Two Factor, Non-Linear Latent growth Model.” Tourism Management, 32:890-901.

Agustin

Singh

(2005). “Curvilinear Effects of Consumer Loyalty Determinants in Relational Exchanges.” Journal of Marketing Research, 42 (2): 96-108.

Assael

(2003). Consumer Behavior: A Strategic Approach. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

Azjen

(1991). “The Theory of Planned Behavior.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50 (2): 179-211.

Ajzen

Fishbein

(1980). Understanding Attitudes and Predicting Social Behavior. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Bagozzi

R. P.

(1992). “The Self-Regulation of Attitudes, Intentions, and Behavior.” Social Psychology Quarterly, 55 (2): 178-204.

Bigne

J. E.

Andreu

Gnoth

(2005). “The Theme Park Experience: An Analysis of Pleasure, Arousal and Satisfaction.” Tourism Management, 26 (6): 833-44.

Bitner

M. J.

(1990). “Evaluating Service Encounters: The Effect of Physical Surroundings and Employee Responses.” Journal of Marketing, 54 (April): 69-82.

Borenstein

Hedges

L. V.

Higgins

J. P. T.

Rothstein

H. R.

(2009). Introduction to Meta-Analysis. West Sussex, UK: Wiley.

10.

Caneem

(2003). “Cultural Determinants of Tourist Intention to Return.” Tourism Analysis, 8 (3): 237-42.

11.

Carr

N. G.

(1999). “Marketing: The Economics of Customer Satisfaction.” Harvard Business Review, 77 (2): 15-16.

12.

Chen

C.-F.

Tsai

D. C.

(2007). “How Destination Image Evaluative Factors Affect Behavioral Intentions?” Tourism Management, 28:1115-22.

13.

Cronin

J. J.

Taylor

S. A.

(1992). “Measuring Service Quality: A Reexamination and Extension.” Journal of Marketing, 56 (3): 55-68.

14.

Dolnicar

(2013). “Asking Good Survey Questions.” Journal of Travel Research, 52 (5): 551-74.

15.

Dolnicar

Grün

(2009). “Does One Size Fit All? The Suitability of Answer Formats for Different Constructs Measured.” Australasian Marketing Journal, 17 (1): 58-64.

16.

Dolnicar

Leisch

(2003). “Winter Tourist Segments in Austria—Identifying Stable Vacation Styles for Target Marketing Action.” Journal of Travel Research, 41 (3): 281-92.

17.

Duman

Mattila

A. S.

(2005). “The Role of Affective Factors on Perceived Cruise Vacation Value.” Tourism Management, 26 (3): 311-23.

18.

Festinger

Riecken

H. W.

Schachter

(1956). When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group That Predicted the Destruction of the World. Minnesota: University of Minnesota Press.

19.

Fishbein

Ajzen

(1975). Belief, Attitude, Intention, and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research. Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley.

20.

Fishbein

Stasson

(1990). “The Role of Desires, Self-Predictions, and Perceived Control in the Prediction of Training Session Attendance.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 20 (3): 173-98.

21.

Glass

G. V.

Mcgaw

Smith

M. L.

(1981). Meta-Analysis in Social Research. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

22.

Hunter

J. E.

Schmidt

(1990). Methods of Meta-analysis: Correcting Error and Bias in Research Findings. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.

23.

Jones

T. O.

Sasser

W. E.

Jr. (1995). “Why Satisfied Customers Defect.” Harvard Business Review, 11/12:88-99.

24.

Kim

Y. K.

Lee

H. R

. (2011). “Customer Satisfaction Using Low Cost Carriers.” Tourism Management, 32 (2): 235-43.

25.

Kordupleski

Simpson

(2003). Mastering Customer Value Management: The Art and Science of Creating Competitive Advantage. Cincinnati: Pinnaflex Educational Resources Inc.

26.

Kozak

Huan

Beaman

(2002). “A Systematic Approach to Non-Repeat and Repeat Travel.” Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 12 (2): 19-38.

27.

Lee

J.-S.

Lee

C.-K.

Choi

(2011). “Examining the Role of Emotional and Functional Values in Festival Evaluation.” Journal of Travel Research, 50 (6): 685-96.

28.

Petrick

J. F.

(2008). “Examining the Antecedents of Brand Loyalty from an Investment Model Perspective.” Journal of Travel Research, 47 (1): 25-34.

29.

Liska

A. E.

(1984). “A Critical Examination of the Causal Structure of the Fishbein/Ajzen Attitude-Behavior Model.” Social Psychology Quarterly, 47 (1): 61-74.

30.

Marley

Louviere

(2005). “Some Probabilistic Models of Best, Worst, and Best-Worst Choices.” Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 49 (6): 464-80.

31.

McKercher

Tse

T. S. M.

(2013). “Is Intention to Return a Valid Proxy for Actual Repeat Visitation?” Journal of Travel Research, 51 (6): 671-86.

32.

Miron-Shatz

2009. “Evaluating Multiepisode Events: Boundary Conditions for the Peak-End Rule.” Emotion, 9 (2): 206.

33.

Oliver

R. L.

(1980). “A Cognitive Model of the Antecedents and Consequences of Satisfaction Decisions.” Journal of Marketing Research, 17 (4): 460-69.

34.

Oliver

R. L.

(1993). “Cognitive, Affective, and Attribute Bases of the Satisfaction Response.” Journal of Consumer Research, 20 (3): 418-30.

35.

Oliver

R. L.

(1997). Satisfaction: A Behavioral Perspective on the Consumer. New York: McGraw-Hill.

36.

Oliver

R. L.

Rust

R. T.

Varki

(1997). “Customer Delight: Foundations, Findings, and Managerial Insight.” Journal of Retailing, 73 (3): 311-36.

37.

Petrick

J. F.

(2004). “Are Loyal Visitors Desired Visitors?” Tourism Management, 25 (4): 463-70.

38.

Podasakoff

P. M.

MacKenzie

S. B.

Lee

J.-Y.

(2003). “Common Method Biases in Behavioral Research: A Critical Review of the Literature and Recommended Remedies.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 88 (5): 879-96.

39.

Reichheld

F. F.

(1993). “Loyalty-Based Management.” Harvard Business Review, 71 (2): 64-73.

40.

Rust

R. T.

Oliver

R. L.

(1994). Service Quality: New Directions in Theory and Practice. London: Sage.

41.

Schmidt

F. L.

I. S.

Hayes

T. L.

(2009). “Fixed versus Random Effects Models in Meta-Analysis: Model Properties and an Empirical Comparison of Differences in Results.” British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, 62:97-128.

42.

Seiders

Voss

G. B.

Grewal

Godfrey

A. L.

(2005). “Do Satisfied Customers Really Buy More?” Journal of Marketing, 69 (10): 26-43.

43.

Sharma

Yetton

(2001). “An Evaluation of a Major Validity Threat to the Technology Acceptance Model.” In: Ninth European Conference on Information Systems, edited by Smithson

Gricar

Podlogar

Avgerinou

Bled, Slovenia, pp. 1170-75.

44.

Sharma

Yetton

(2003). “The Contingent Effects of Management Support and Task Interdependence on Successful Information Systems Implementation.” MIS Quarterly, 27:533-56.

45.

Sharma

Yetton

(2007). “The Contingent Effects of Training, Technical Complexity and Task Interdependence on Successful Information Systems Implementation.” MIS Quarterly, 31:219-38.

46.

Sharma

Yetton

(2011). “Top Management Support and IS Implementation: Further Support for the Moderating Role of Task Interdependence.” European Journal of Information Systems, 20: 703-12.

47.

Sharma

Yetton

Crawford

(2007). “Common Methods Bias: Reports of Its Demise Are Highly Exaggerated.” In International Conference on Information Systems. Montreal: Association for Information Systems, pp. 32-34.

48.

Sharma

Yetton

Crawford

(2009). “Estimating the Effect of Common Method Variance: The Method-Method Pair Technique with an Illustration from TAM Research.” MIS Quarterly, 33:473-90.

49.

Soderlund

Ohman

(2003). “Behavioral Intentions in Satisfaction Research Revisited.” Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction and Complaining Behavior, 16:53-66.

50.

Spreng

R. A.

Mackenzie

S. B.

Olshavsky

R. W.

(1996). “A Reexamination of the Determinants of Consumer Satisfaction.” Journal of Marketing, 60 (3): 15-32.

51.

Swan

J. E.

Oliver

R. L.

(1989). “Postpurchase Communications by Consumers.” Journal of Retailing, 65 (4): 516-33.

52.

Voss

G. B.

Godfrey

Seiders

(2010).“How Complementary and Substitution Alter the Customer Satisfaction-Repurchase Link.” Journal of Marketing, 74 (11): 111-27.

53.

Weaver

P. A.

Weber

McCleary

K. W.

(2007). “Destination Evaluation: The Role of Previous Travel Experience and Trip Characteristics.” Journal of Travel Research, 45 (3): 333-44.

54.

Westbrook

R. A.

Oliver

R. L.

(1991). “The Dimensionality of Consumption Emotion Patterns and Consumer Satisfaction.” Journal of Consumer Research, 18 (1): 84-91.

55.

Williams

Soutar

G. N.

(2009). “Value, Satisfaction and Behavioral Intentions in an Adventure Tourism Context.” Annals of Tourism Research, 36 (3): 413-38.

56.

Wolf

F. M.

(1986). Meta-Analysis: Quantitative Methods for Research Synthesis. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

57.

(1990). “A Critical Review of Consumer Satisfaction.” In Review of Marketing, Vol. 4, edited by Zeithaml

V. A.

Chicago.: America Marketing Association, pp. 68-123.

58.

Yuan

Jang

(2007). “The Effects of Quality and Satisfaction on Awareness and Behavioral Intentions: Exploring the Role of a Wine Festival.” Journal of Travel Research, 46 (3): 279-88.

59.

Zeithaml

V. A.

Berry

L. L.

Parasuraman

(1996). “The Behavioral Consequences of Service Quality.” Journal of Marketing, 60 (2): 31-46.