Estimating the Economic Impact of an Increase in Inbound Tourism on the German Economy Using TSA Results

Abstract

This article shows which additional analysis options are available within the framework of model-based macroeconomic analyses using structural information provided by tourism satellite accounts (TSAs). Based on their modular, product-specific documentation of results, TSAs provide optimal linkages to input–output models. In addition to the use of the simple input–output approaches, dynamically formulated macroeconomic structural models should be considered. After a brief characterization of the main demands placed on a macroeconomic model, the dynamic macroeconomic forecasting and simulation model for the German economy, Interindustry Forecasting Germany (INFORGE), is presented. Against the background of Germany being able to increase its market share in international tourism over the next several years, the corresponding scenario is elaborated in more specific terms using TSA results. After an explanation of the assumed scenario relating to the future development of inbound tourism, some simulation results using the INFORGE model to estimate the overall effects on income and employment are presented.

Keywords

tourism satellite accounts TSA inbound tourism consumption macroeconomic modeling net economic impacts

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Ahlert, G. (2000). "Reasons for Modelling Sports in a Complex Economic Model: Two Examples." European Journal for Sport Management , 7 (1): 31-55.

--- ( 2001). "The Economic Effects of the Soccer World Cup 2006 in Germany with Regard to Different Financing." Economic Systems Research, 13 (1): 109-27.

--- ( 2003). Einführung eines Tourismussatellitensystems in Deutschland. Abschlussbericht zum Forschungsauftrag Nr.33/02 (EU-Projekt) des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Arbeit (BMWA), GWS Discussion Paper, 2003(4), Osnabrück, Germany.

--- ( 2005). EU-Erweiterung im Kontext zunehmender Internationalisierung: Auswirkungen auf den Tourismus. GWS Discussion Paper, 2005(6), Osnabrück, Germany.

--- ( 2006). "Hosting the FIFA World Cup Germany 2006 Macroeconomic and Regional Economic Impacts." Journal of Convention and Event Tourism, 8 (2): 57-77.

--- ( 2007a). "The Contribution of Tourism to Employment in Germany-Assessment within a TSA Employment Module and Impact Analysis." e-Review of Tourism Research, 5 (6): 149-58.

--- ( 2007b). "Methodological Aspects of Preparing the German TSA, Empirical Findings and Initial Reactions." Tourism Economics , 13 (2): 275-87.

Almon, C. (1991). "The INFORUM Approach to Interindustry Modeling ." Economic Systems Research, 3 (1): 1-7.

Bach, S. , M. Kohlhaas , B. Meyer , B. Praetorius , and H. Welsch (2002). "The Effects of Environmental Fiscal Reform in Germany: A Simulation Study." Energy Policy, 30 (9): 803-11.

10.

Blake, A. , R. Durbarry , M. Sinclair , and G. Sugiyarto (2001). Modelling Tourism and Travel Using Tourism Satellite Accounts and Tourism Policy and Forecasting Models. TTRI Discussion Paper, 2001(4), Nottingham, UK.

11.

Commission of the EC, OECD, UN, and WTO ( 2001). Tourism Satellite Account: Recommended Methodological Framework. New York: Commission of the EC, OECD, UN, and WTO.

12.

Distelkamp, M. , F. Hohmann , C. Lutz , B. Meyer , and M.I. Wolter (2003). Das IAB/INFORGE-Modell-Ein neuer ökonometrischer Ansatz gesamtwirtschaftlicher und länderspezifischer Szenarien. Beiträge zur Arbeitsmarkt-und Berufsforschung, 275, Nürnberg.

13.

Dixon, P.B. (2006). Evidence-based Trade Policy Decision Making in Australia and the Development of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling . Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University, General Working Paper G-163, Clayton, Australia.

14.

Dwyer, L. , P. Forsyth , J. Madden , and R. Spurr (2000): "Economic Impacts of Inbound Tourism under Different Assumptions about the Macroeconomy." Current Issues in Tourism , 4 (3): 325-63.

15.

Dwyer, L. , P. Forsyth , and R. Spurr (2006). "Assessing the Economic Impacts of Events: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach." Journal of Travel Research , 45: 59-66.

16.

--- ( 2007). "Contrasting the Uses of TSAs and CGE Models: Measuring Tourism Yield and Productivity." Tourism Economics, 13 (4): 537-51.

17.

Eurostat (2002). European Implementation Manual on Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSA). Luxembourg: Eurostat.

18.

Fletcher, J.E. (1989). "Input-Output Analysis and Tourism Impact Studies ." Annals of Tourism Research, 16 (4): 514-29.

19.

Frechtling, D.C. (2001). Forecasting Tourism Demand: Methods and Strategies . Oxford, UK: Butterworth-Heinemann .

20.

German National Tourist Board (2005- 2006). Marktinformation für ausgewählte Länder. Frankfurt am Main: German National Tourist Board.

21.

--- ( 2006). Zahlen, Daten, Fakten. Frankfurt am Main: German National Tourist Board.

22.

Kuhbach, P.D. , and G.A. Herauf (2005). "US Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts for 2001-2004." BEA Survey of Current Business, 2005 (6): 17-29.

23.

Li, G. , H. Song , and S.F. Witt (2005). "Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting." Journal of Travel Research, 44: 82-99.

24.

Lutz, C. , B. Meyer , C. Nathani , and J. Schleich (2005). "Endogenous Technological Change and Emissions: The Case of the German Steel Industry." Energy Policy, 33 (9): 1143-54.

25.

Meyer, B. , and G. Ewerhart (1998). "Multisectoral Policy Modelling for Environmental Analysis." In Environmental Accounting in Theory and Practice , edited by K. Uno and P. Bartelmus. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer, pp. 395-408.

26.

Meyer, B. , C. Lutz , P. Schnur , and G. Zika (2007). "Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany." Economic Systems Research , 19 (1): 37-55.

27.

Meyer, B. , C. Lutz , and M.I. Wolter (2005). "Global Multisector/Multicountry 3-E Modelling: From COMPASS to GINFORS." Revista de Economia Mundial, 13: 77-97.

28.

Miller, R.E. , and P.D. Blair (1985). Input-Output-Analysis: Foundations and Extensions . Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

29.

Schleich, J. , C. Nathani , B. Meyer , and C. Lutz (2006). Endogenous Technological Change and CO2-Emissions: The Case of the Energy-Intensive Industries in Germany. Stuttgart, Germany: Fraunhofer IRB-Verlag.

30.

Smeral, E. (1995). "The Economic Impact of Tourism in Austria." Tourist Review, 50 (3): 8-22.

31.

--- ( 2003). Die Zukunft des internationalen Tourismus. Vienna, Austria: Linde-Verlag.

32.

--- (2005). "The Economic Impact of Tourism: Beyond Satellite Accounts." Tourism Analysis, 10: 55-64.

33.

--- (2006). "Tourism Satellite Accounts: A Critical Assessment ." Journal of Travel Research, 45: 92-98.

34.

West, G.R. (1995). "Comparison of Input-Output, Input-Output + Econometric and Computable General Equilibrium Impact Models at the Regional Level." Economic Systems Research, 7: 209-27.

35.

West, G.R. , and A. Gamage (2001). "Macro Effects of Tourism in Victoria: A Nonlinear Input-Output Approach." Journal of Travel Research, 40: 101-9.

36.

Witt, S.F. , and C.A. Witt (1992). Modeling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism. London: Academic Press.

37.

World Tourism Organization (2000). Tourism 2020-Volume 4: Europe. Madrid: World Tourism Organization.

38.

World Travel and Tourism Council and Oxford Economic Forecasting (2004). Travel and Tourism Simulated Satellite Accounting Research-Methodology and Documentation. London : World Travel and Tourism Council and Oxford Economic Forecasting.

39.

Zhou, D. , J.F. Yanagida , U. Chakravorty , and P. Leung (1997). "Estimating Economic Impacts from Tourism." Annals of Tourism Research, 24 (1): 76-89.