This article reviews recent trends in travel and tourism in the United States and Hawaii to ascertain how the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and subsequent terrible global events affected tourism flows. United States tourism has not recovered fully from 9/11 and other international shocks; indeed, recovery may be a long way off. By contrast, Hawaii tourism is enjoying robust growth in the aftermath of 9/11 as growth in tourist arrivals from the mainland has offset declines in international visitors. We suggest that Hawaii’s current tourism boom is explained in part by the diversion of United States travel from foreign travel. The article demonstrates the usefulness of vector error correction models to generate dynamic visitor forecasts, which we use to determine whether tourism in Hawaii has recovered fully from 9/11 and other terrible international events. The article considers policy options for facilitating the recovery of international tourism to the United States.
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