Two-Stage Shift-Share Analyses of Tourism Arrivals and Arrivals by Purpose of Visit: The Singapore Experience

Abstract

This article first uses the Esteban-Marquillas extension of the shift-share approach to analyze the growth of visitors to Singapore, measured against the benchmark countries of Thailand, Malaysia, and Hong Kong. Second, it modifies the extended model to analyze the growth of four of Singapore’s tourism sectors (holiday travel, business visits, business and pleasure visits, and transit stops). This two-stage shift-share approach allows the authors to determine how it is performing relative to its benchmark competitors, where Singapore’s tourism industry is specializing, and where it is competitive. The authors found that Singapore is very much like Hong Kong and is becoming less competitive relative to Thailand and Malaysia. Also, growth appears to be slower in the holiday and business and pleasure markets and faster for business visits and transit stops.