This article examines changes in the turnout of registered voters in presidential primaries over the last 12 years that result from changes in the primary environment. While previous research has been limited to static, cross-sectional analysis, we undertake a diachronic analysis of the link between changes in voter turnout and changes in the electoral framework and strategic campaign components of the primary environment. By making a controlled comparison of the impact of such changes on voter turnout, we are able to gauge the sensitivity of electorate responsiveness to primary environment change. In contrast to previous research, we find little or no difference between the behavior of Republican and Democratic electorates and no spillover effect on voter turnout. It is suggested that those interested in increasing voter turnout in the presidential primaries should focus on the design of competition, since turnout is considerably more sensitive to changes in strategic campaign factors than to changes in electoral framework factors.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
ABRAMSON, P.
and J. ALDRICH (1981) “The decline of electoral participation in America.” Presented at the APSA annual meetings, New York, September 3-6.
2.
AEI
(1980) The Presidential Nominating Process: Can it be Improved? AEI Forums.Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute.
3.
AEI
(1979) Choosing Presidential Candidates: How Good is the New Way? AEI Forums.Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute.
4.
ALDRICH, J.
(1980a) Before the Convention.Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.
5.
ALDRICH, J.
(1980b) “A dynamic model of presidential nomination campaigns”.Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.74: 651-669.
6.
BOYD, R.
(1981) “Decline of U.S. voter turnout: structural explanations.”Amer. Pol. Q.9: 133-161.
7.
BRAMS, S.
(1978) The Presidential Election Game.New Haven: Yale Univ. Press.
8.
CAMPBELL, D.
(1969) “Reforms as experiments.”Amer. Psychologist24: 409-429.
9.
COOK, T.
and D. CAMPBELL (1976) “The design and conduct of quasi-experiments and true experiments in field settings,” In M. D. Dunnette (ed.) Handbook of Organizational and Industrial Psychology.Chicago: Rand McNally.
10.
CROTTY, W.
(1979) “Assessing a decade of reform.” Presented at the 1979 American Political Science Association.New York.
11.
CROTTY, W.
(1978) Decision for the Democrats: Reforming the Party Structure.Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press.
12.
DAVIS, J.
(1980) Presidential Primaries: Road to the White House.Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.
13.
DAVIS, L. J.
(1982) “Reforming the reforms.”New Republic February 17, 8-13.
14.
DOWNS, A.
(1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy.New York: Harper & Row.
15.
ERIKSON, R.
(1981) “Why do people vote? Because they are registered.”Amer. Pol.9: 259-276.
16.
FEREJOHN, J.
and M. FIORINA (1974) “The paradox of not voting: a decision theoretic analysis.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.68: 626-635.
17.
HADLEY, A.
(1978) The Empty Polling Booth.Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
18.
HAMMOND, T.
(1980) “Another look at the role of the rules in the 1972 Democratic presidential primaries.”Western Pol. Q.33: 50-72.
19.
JANDA, K.
(1980) Political Parties: A Cross National Survey.New York: Free Press.
20.
LENGLE, J.
and B. SHAFER (1976) “Primary rules, political power and social change.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.70: 25-42.
21.
LERNER, A.
and H. SINGER (1937) “Notes on duopoly and spatial competition”J. of Pol. Economy47: 164-188.
22.
LONGLEY, C.
(1978) “Party reform and the Republican Party.” Presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association.
23.
MORRIS, W.
, T. SAULINO, and O. DAVIS (1975) “The sport of kings.” Presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association.
24.
MORRIS, W.
, J. SAMPLE, and O. DAVIS (1976) “Structural determinants of turnout in primary elections” presented at the Western Political Science Association annual meetings.
25.
PATTERSON, T.
(1980) The Mass Media Election.New York: Sprague.
26.
PETERSON, W.
(1976) Principles of Economics: Micro.Homewood, II: Richard D. Irwin.
27.
POMPER, G.
(1968) Elections in America.New York: Dodd, Mead.
28.
RANNEY, A.
(1977) Participation in American Presidential Nominations 1976.Washington DC: AFT.
29.
RANNEY, A.
(1972) “Turnout and representation in presidential primary elections.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.66: 21-37.
30.
REITER, H.
(1977) “The trend towards presidential non-voting.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., September 1-4.
31.
RIKER, W.
and P. ORDESHOOK (1973) Introduction to Positive Political Theory.Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
32.
RIKER, W.
and P. ORDESHOOK (1968) “A theory of the calculus of voting.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.62: 25-42.
33.
ROSENSTONE, S.
and R. WOLFINGER (1978) “The effects of registration laws on voter turnout.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.72: 22-45.
34.
ROSENTHAL, H.
and S. SEN (1973) “Electoral participation in the French Fifth Republic.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.67: 29-48.
35.
RUBIN, R.
(1979) “Presidential primaries: continuities, dimensions of change, and political implications,” in W. Crotty (ed.) The Party Symbol.San Francisco: W. H. Freeman.
36.
SARTORI, G.
(1976) Political Parties and Party Systems.New York: Free Press.
37.
SCHAFER, S.
(1981) “A multivariate explanation of decreasing turnout in presidential elections 1960-1976.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci.25: 68-95.
38.
THEIL, H.
(1971) Principles of Econometrics.New York: John Wiley.
39.
TULLOCK, G.
(1968) Towards a Mathematics of Politics.Ann Arbor: Univ. of Michigan Press.
40.
ZELDENSTEIN, H.
(1970) “Presidential primaries-reflections of the people's choice?J. of Politics32: 856-873.
41.
ZUKIN, C.
(1981) “Stating the case for state polls.”Public Opinion4: 18-20.
