This article presents evidence from statistical data, statistical models, and electoral surveys indicating strongly that the substantial victory of Reagan and the Republicans in 1980 was the predictable consequence of poor economic performance under Carter and the Democrats and did not represent an ideological “shift to the right” by the electorate. The latter part of the article discusses the implications of this conclusion for public support for the Reagan administration's social and economic program, and for the Republican party's political prospects in 1982 and 1984.
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