Abstract
The U.S. high school dropout rate continues to decline. Possible reasons for this decline include stronger academic standards, persistent state and district actions, and implementation of programs to help disconnected youth reconnect to educational opportunities. In the current study, we propose a complementary hypothesis for rate improvements: adult capacity. When adults nurture, socialize, and teach youth, youth are more likely to achieve academic and life success. Likewise, neighborhoods need enough adults to provide these relationships. Using the Decennial Census data (1970-2010), we examined whether an increase in the adult-to-youth ratio in a neighborhood covaries with a reduction in the status dropout rate. We find that a 1% increase in the ratio is associated with a 1% decrease in the dropout rate. The effect is substantially greater in predominantly Black or African American neighborhoods and higher income neighborhoods. Policy implications are discussed, specifically how the adult-to-youth ratio could be increased.
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