Developing an Indicator of Property Market Resilience—Investigating the Potential of GIS to Analyse Business Occupier Displacement and Property Market Filtering: A Case Study of Tyne and Wear

Abstract

The research investigates the potential of a geographical information system to analyse the recorded displacement of office and industrial occupiers in Tyne and Wear, England. The paper demonstrates that a GIS provides an effective tool with which to illustrate, analyse and model occupier displacement and market filtering. The research goes on to develop and test an indicator with which to identify urban areas that may be most vulnerable to property occupier displacement. The correlation of rateable value and VAT registration datasets, with the origin of occupiers of new office and industrial developments and the location of vacant chain-end property, was tested. The strongest correlation is with new VAT registrations within a three-year period. A property market resilience indicator is developed, with which to classify urban areas in terms of their resilience or vulnerability to business occupier displacement generated by commercial property development.