The Changing Route to Owner-occupation: The Impact of Borrowing Constraints on Young Adult Homeownership Transitions in Britain in the 1990s

Abstract

The reduction in young adult homeownership rates in Britain in the 1990s was partly caused by demographics and partly by a shift in the income distribution. Most of their relative income deterioration occurred in the first part of the decade, yet young adult homeownership rates continued to fall. This paper extends that analysis by empirically examining whether lender-imposed borrowing restrictions also contributed to their decline, especially since house prices rose rapidly in the second half of the decade. A duration model examining the timing of a transition into homeownership is estimated on a sample of young adults derived from the British Household Panel Survey. Credit constraint terms are constructed and included in the model. A simulation analysis is undertaken to assess the extent to which binding credit constraints were responsible for the observed falls. It is concluded that borrowing restrictions delayed young adult transitions into homeownership.