God is Doing a New Thing in the ELCA: Trends from the FACT Data

Abstract

For decades, mainline Protestant denominations in the United States have experienced steady membership declines. The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA) is no different, and our research team has been exploring this topic for years. Faith Communities Today (FACT) is an interfaith project consisting of a series of surveys conducted by the Cooperative Congregational Studies Partnership, of which the ELCA is a long-standing member. In this article, we examine data collected from the three decennial FACT surveys to discern where, despite declining membership, God is, to quote the prophet Isaiah, “doing a new thing.” We find that over the past twenty years, the typical ELCA congregation has had a gradually increasing: sense of vitality, belief that it is financially healthy, desire to become more diverse, willingness to call women to serve as pastors, openness to change, and clarity of mission and purpose. Because there are multiple possible explanations for these positive trends, we recommend approaching such trend lines cautiously, viewing them through a critical-thinking lens. Even though there is an increased perception of congregational well-being, overall finances and the number of people involved in the church continue to decline. There is still much work to be done.