Abstract
The Interactive Model for AIDS Prediction (IMAP2) is a large simulation program for predicting the spread of HIV in the United States and for testing the effects on that spread of various perturbations to the model inputs. IMAP2 is constructed on a transmission-based epidemiological model for the sexual transmission of HIV and a dynamic population model for transmission of HIV by intravenous (injecting) drug abuse. The intent of IMAP2 is to facilitate comparative case studies, rather than absolute predictions for the future course of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and in its intended role it is proving useful.
Perturbations to the input data might represent influences of government social policies, improved information gathering, etc., and make the model a vehicle for testing hypotheses. Example hypotheses include: (1) practices which might change the latency period of the disease; and (2) managed patterns of use and efficacy of male and female condoms.
We begin by describing the algorithmic core of the model. We proceed to describing the user interface, an important aspect of a model such as this which is intended for interactive use (and in fact is currently in use) by individuals whose specialties are in areas other than computing. We next describe briefly the current status of IMAP2 — maintenance under way, and use by the Center for Devices and Radiological Health in the Food and Drug Administration. Following this we describe the limitations of the model, and then describe the model's use in two selected case studies related to the future course of the HIV epidemic in the United States. In a concluding discussion we describe future extensions to IMAP2.
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