Discrete-event simulation of agricultural pest management systems

Abstract

Discrete-event modelling and simulation strategies have been used successfully in many areas to simulate activities which can be viewed clearly as a succession of separate events. A discrete- event approach can also be appropriate for the study of many agricultural pest management systems. To demonstrate the general methodology, the following detailed description of a par ticular case was used - the computer implementation of a discrete-event model which simulates the population dynamics and damage potential of a navel orangeworm infestation in an almond orchard under the influence of ambient weather con ditions and a variety of grower management actions. The pro gram, written in (UCSD) Pascal, is completely encased in interac tive, shepherding software which allows the user considerable flexibility in the prescription of model parameters and in the in put of initial data, as well as in the selection of model output options. Use of this model as a pest management tool should provide a better qualitative and quantitative understanding of the life cycle and crop interactions of this pest and may lead to improved measures for its control. More generally, the pre sent paper can serve as a guide for the application of the discrete- event approach in the study of other pest management or ecological systems.