A simulation of the use of energy and land at the national level

Abstract

The authors argue that, while detailed econometric- type models will be useful to the implementers of policy, the policy-maker needs a more systems-oriented simulation device. This is true because local prob lems are becoming more intricately related to national (and international) level variables. Also, it is probable that historical trends in important variables (e.g., population growth and energy costs) may soon end and new trends will begin. The authors are assembling a hierarchical systems model for policy- making and describe the national level of the model in this paper. The chief hypothesis being studied with this model is that agricultural exports will expand in order to offset a trade imbalance caused by increased crude-oil import prices. This expansion will trigger a whole sequence of systems-level impacts on variables of diverse character such as domestic wheat prices, urban population density, the fraction of commuters who use public transit, etc. The authors conclude with simulations that demonstrate the drama tic long-term effect of current crude-oil prices.