Abstract
This paper describes a simulation model of population growth in the People's Republic of China from 1953 to 2103. Our model, CHINA1, is based on the WORLD3 model of D. L. Meadows et al., and thus it analyses population growth in the context of a large, inter related economic and environmental system. It assumes that China will continue her present policy of material self-sufficiency. Model simulation runs based on current trends in China show continued population growth well into the twenty-first century, despite a falling birth rate. A precipitous decline in population then ensues due to resource depletion, collapse of the industrial sector, and mass starva tion. Policies designed to avert such an outcome are tested in the model. The simulation indicates that a successful policy must include all of the following:
1. The family size norm declining to two children by 1985
2. Industrial output per capita stabilizing at the level projected for 1990
3. Dependency on nonrenewable resources lessening over the long-run.
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