Environmental modeling vs. the "chicken soup" approach: work in progress

Abstract

The author wishes to note that the models discussed in this paper are all now under construction. Al though they are all being designed by the Environ mental Studies Division (ESD), there are large num bers of inputs from various other members of the research and policy community. Further, not all of the members of the ESD design team look at the models exactly as the author does. Each member of ESD's teams was chosen because of his unique point of view and the resulting models all represent a meld. Specifically, the SEAS project staff is composed of Martin Brossman, John Gerba, Sam Ratick, and Gene Tyndall; the carrying-capacity team, of Dr. Martin Redding and Robert Livingston; and so forth. Dr. Philip Patterson and I are members of each of these teams. Because the staff is small in number, there is considerable cross-fertilization in each model area. As a result, the points of view in this paper are mine to the extent that team members disagree, and are all of ours when all do agree. The reader is asked to forgive the nonrigorous and informal presentation of the models in this paper. More detailed documentation presented in a more for mal style can be obtained by writing to the author.