Air-pollution forcasting by an adaptive method

Abstract

The unsteady state of urban air pollution is described by a simple first-order ordinary differential equa tion that is derived from the fundamental equations of fluid-dynamics under the assumptions of homogeneity of source distribution and horizontal concentration distribution. The short-term prediction of a regional average concentration is carried out for a four-day period based on the unsteady-state equation with use of an adaptive prediction method. One- to six-hour predictions of the regional average concen tration are in good agreement with the observed concentrations.