A demographic and economic growth model for Bolivia

Abstract

This paper describes a two-sector population and economic simulation model of Bolivia. Parameters for the population model were arrived at in as rigorous a manner as possible considering the paucity of data. Good agreement with the historical facts was obtained with the population model. The economic model is a more theoretical representation of the dynamic inter actions in a two-sector economy. Sensitivity testing of the model, which has been named BOLIVIA, indicated that average lifetimes and overall growth rates vary considerably in response to public-health and family- planning programs. Unemployment rates, per-capita income, and rural-urban migration rates were found to be sensitive to family planning programs as well as to growth-stimulating economic policies. The response of the model shows the relative weakness of the nega tive feedback loops that restrain population growth, and suggests that family-planning programs and birth- control incentive programs should accompany any pro grams that tend to reduce the death rate.