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Abstract

The limited reserves of mineral resources will soon become a problem facing all the countries of this globe. In an attempt to plan for the needed supply, the static reserve life index of a resource has been used as a measure of future availability. This static index is an inadequate measure of resource availability, one which could cause severe misjudg ments concerning resource supplies. Long-term re source planning requires a better understanding than that afforded by the static reserve life index. This paper illustrates that knowledge already available about the relationships governing the supply of and demand for resources is sufficient to develop a frame work, a simulation model, which can form the basis for more meaningful analysis of long-term resource utili zation.

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References

Resources and Man National Academy of Sciences National Research Council W. H. Freeman Co. 1969 p 119

Ewell, Raymond Chemical and Engineering News August 24, 1970 p 43

A 3% annual growth in consumption is a conservative estimate for most resources.

The A/G (arithmetic/geometric) ratio, or the Lasky ratio, introduced by the geologist S. G. Lasky in 1950 (How tonnage-grade relations help predict ore reserves, Engineering Mining Journal, vol 151, no 4, 81-85) stated that as the average grade of ore mined decreased arithmetically, the tonnage increases geometrically. Unfortunately, this has been shown to hold only for a few minerals, such as porphyry coppers, and only over a small range of grades.

For a complete discussion of the factors governing resource recycling, see Jorgen Randers, The Dynamics of Solid Waste Generation, Program Office, System Dynamics Group, MIT E40-21, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

For more complete descriptions of System Dynamics and its application to complex systems, see Jay W. Forrester , Principles of Systems, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139; and Dennis L. Meadows , Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles , Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, 1970. For a description of DYNAMO, see A.L. Pugh , III, DYNAMO II User's Manual, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, 1970.

The capitalized letters represent the actual variable names in the computer program; Actual Cost is represented in the program by AC.

Some resources can be recycled, of course. The dynamics of recycling have been studied in a complementary model by Randers, op. cit.

We assume a constant profit margin relating producer costs to consumer price.

10.

Drucker, Peter F. The Age of Discontinuity Harper and Row 1968 p 44ff

11.

It is often true in complex systems that the structure and the direction of relationships are more important than the actual parameter values. If we were concerned with describing the precise behavior of a specific resource, this and other curves would have to be estimated more closely. To determine whether the exact shape of the curve is important, one may test the sensitivity of the model results to changes in the curve.

12.

Holdren, John P. Lawrence Radiation Lab in a seminar at MIT on March 24, 1971.

The dynamics of natural resource utilization

Abstract

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