Abstract
This paper seeks to structure the problem of mea surement and prediction in total society systems. A macrosociological model comprising a limited num ber of variables is developed and applied to five diverse societies of the globe - Brazil, France, India, Nigeria and the USA. The rationale of the model and the methodology are provided by cyberne tic concepts; it permits making qualified predic tions. The model that is developed can be run for ward or backward in time. In the latter use the results of the simulation were compared with available official data for prior years, and the agreement was found to be generally good.
The performance of the model is illustrated here with particular reference to US society for a period of over two decades. In the simulation the time path of a society consists of its viability status (Z)GS and essential variables as functions of time.
The predictions obtained by running the model forward in time depend for their validity on the fit of the simulation to historical data when time runs backward. For 1972 and the USA, this applies particularly to empirical variables like government change, economic growth, price rise, and unemployment. The generality and validity of the model are reinforced by the con sistent results obtained for the other four societies (which differ markedly from the USA) when the model for them is run backward in time.
The model encompasses exogenous pressures, internal system processes, and endogenous events. The latter are interpreted as processes extended in time.
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