A Simulation Model for Availability Under Battlefield Situations

Abstract

The availability of defence systems such as aircraft, battle tanks, ships and others, is a critical parameter for planning combat missions. Availability does not remain constant, due to battle damage, which depends on the intensity of the battle, and repair rates. As most high intensity conflicts do not continue for more than one to two weeks, transient solutions for availability are of greater interest than steady state solutions. In this paper we develop a simulation model to arrive at transient solutions to the availability of defence systems under battlefield situations. The model includes Monte Carlo methods applying dif ferent probability distributions for failure times due to battle damage and system unreliability, and for repair times. The simulations can be performed using exponential, Weibull or log-normal distribu tion, as appropriate. The simulation results indicate transient fluctuations in availability within one to two weeks of battle, which would seriously limit the possible combat missions in battles.